How To Cope As A Bear Market Virgin

Published in Investing on 16 August 2011

A market panic is a great time for learning – make the most of it.

Regular readers of the Fool might recall that my teenage son, Sim, embarked on his investing career just over a year ago.

He's building a portfolio of family firms by making monthly investments using The Motley Fool ShareBuilder service. Last month, in reviewing his portfolio at the end of the first year, Sim wrote:

"I've really enjoyed watching the percentage rise (and fall slightly at times) over the year. I know to expect there will be big falls sometimes, but I haven't really experienced that yet."

Now he has! The turmoil of the past fortnight has given him a real taste of what a market panic feels like. How did he cope? And what did he learn?

Don't panic

Before you've ever invested money in shares, it's quite easy to be blasé about the warnings you may have read.

You might, for example, have come across Warren Buffett's famous caution: "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."

If you thought, 'Yep, no problem, I can handle that', before investing, you'll almost certainly have found the recent market panic a lot tougher to deal with when you've got hard cash at stake -- and the markets haven't even come close to falling 50%!

Sim has occasionally mentioned the level of the Footsie to me over the past year, but the finance app on his phone began working overtime as the market went into freefall. I was soon getting a running commentary: "Down 100 points, Dad -- no, hang on, 130 -- Back up 50, phew -- Down again!"

Don't panic. Remember, this is what markets do. You're a stock picker, you're looking to buy good companies at good prices, and you're investing for the long term. The last place you need to be at times like this is caught in the headlights, knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Opportunity knocks

To a degree, Sim was prepared for a market correction. In June, when he made his twelfth investment, we noted that. "Over the last couple of months we've struggled to find compelling investment opportunities in our family firms universe using sales, earnings and dividend valuation methods."

There were plenty of companies Sim had researched and would like to have owned, but they had seemed to be just too expensive at the time. "If only they were a bit cheaper," was a grumble I heard from him on many an occasion.

To be fair to Sim, after initially being transfixed by the falling markets, the penny did drop. I was pleased when, without any prompting from me, it occurred to him that maybe this was an opportunity to buy some of those companies that had previously seemed too pricey.

Sim was constrained by the relatively small amounts he is investing (£150-a-time), and the four fixed dates a month of the ShareBuilder service, which makes investing such small sums economic.

The markets had risen from their lows by the time he invested, but he was nevertheless able to pick up a couple of companies that he'd had his eye on for some time.

The market isn't your portfolio

For all investors, but particularly novices, market panics are a great time to learn about your portfolio and yourself.

I encouraged Sim to ignore the wider market, and concentrate on observing the behaviour of his portfolio and noting how he felt.

One thing that particularly irritated him was that we had added to our holding in Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LSE: HIK), at 709p, the very day before the market embarked on its multi-day decline. It fell as low as 537p.

These things happen. We might be deep in the red on Hikma, but we bought at 709p because we felt it was good long-term value at that price. Nothing changes that. You have to keep things in perspective.

On the subject of perspective, I pointed out that some of our other more recent buys, such as Robinson (LSE: RBN) and Mountview Estates (LSE: MTVW) had held up remarkably well.

Indeed, the portfolio as a whole had been more resilient than the market. At the end of last week, the unit value had fallen just 7% since Sim's July review, compared to a 13% fall for the FTSE All-Share tracker he monitors.

For novice investors, it can be difficult to know how volatile your portfolio is when markets are rising. A market panic gives you a good chance to see that, and to see whether you can stomach the level of volatility or whether you may need to make some adjustments to the balance between riskier and safer companies.

In summary, then, when markets are going bananas: don't panic; look for opportunities; and learn about your portfolio and yourself.

More from G A Chester:

> G A Chester owns shares in Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Mountview Estates, and Robinson. The Motley Fool owns shares in Mountview Estates.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

jeff700 16 Aug 2011 , 4:29pm

I suggest the best very share to own right now is the Personal Assets Trust (PNL). A gem of a investment trust for this bear market.

rober00 16 Aug 2011 , 4:33pm

Good Article and very timely.

vinchainsaw 16 Aug 2011 , 5:17pm

For whatever reason (paying for a wedding, selling to buy a house and then changing my mind etc) I've never been in the markets when its had a big fall. Until now that is.

So, while I've lived through flash crashes and downturns before through the lens of whatever financial services company had employed me at the time, I've never seen my own portfolio take a proper beating.

I'm also a bit annoyed with myself for picking up Shell days before the oil price plunged but c'est la vie. Other than that I'm having a tremendous time watching the soap opera unfold.

I think what is most fascinating for me (apart from picking up bargains) is watching the brutal force of a market.
Politicians can try every gimmick in the book to keep it propped up; eventually the market will have its way with investors.

As a (relatively) young man it has again concentrated the wisdom of investing for value over the long-term.
I've also been much more focused on ring-fencing what I'd call my long-term portfolio from my more speculative holdings and for the first time I've given this serious thought and placed tentative numbers on what I feel would be good limit splits.

A further positive is that I also did much more research into some of my fund holdings and didnt really like what I found.
Most of them were long-term holds that had always risen steadily. I was, however, not very happy with some of the fundamentals of the under-lying companies and have used this opportunity to divest of those and buy into some cheap ftse blue chips.
All in the name of taking more control of my own investments.

An expensive learning experience but I'm ecstatic that I've had this opportunity.

MunroMan 16 Aug 2011 , 7:53pm

I hope he has learnt the point made by Brinson and others in his paper published decades ago. He said 90% of the variability of returns comes from the asset class.

If your son learns that only 10% of his effort iin selecting stock is being rewarded it will be money well spent.

In the long term stock picking is a waste of time and effort. You are better off making calls on asset allocation.

F958B 16 Aug 2011 , 9:05pm

LordEssex

I generally agree that asset class allocations are more likely to drive investment outperformance - cash, bonds, shares, property, commodities.

Unfortunately, most investors look at the best performing asset class and chase it, rather than look at those asset classes which have been in bear markets for so long that nobody seriously thinks that they can ever rise again.
I can recall the closure of many commodity funds around the time of the tech boom - just as commodities were bottoming after a two-decade bear market.

A similar case with major gold dealers in the erly 2000's.

I can recall buying gold coins (Sovs, Krugers) from a large London dealer around 2003.

Amid some friendly chatter (probably because I was such a good customer!) I insisted that a major gold bull market was starting and that gold (then at $350) would exceed $1000 by 2010.
The gold dealer initially tried to downplay my claim, but then mellowed as they realised that they could be talking themselves out of a sale of this barbarous old relic which very few people wanted to buy!
Even the dealers were sceptical after such a long bear market. Now that's the ultimate contrarian signal!

jaizan 16 Aug 2011 , 9:18pm

Another insightful post from F958B.

As for the I-phone app, too many market updates sounds like a bad idea to me. Movement of by 50 points amounts to about 1%. Investors should ignore that.

lookingforclues 17 Aug 2011 , 1:32pm

F958B, you wrote;

'Unfortunately, most investors look at the best performing asset class and chase it, rather than look at those asset classes which have been in bear markets for so long that nobody seriously thinks that they can ever rise again.'


Would I be right to assume from this that you are now heavily invested in Japanese equities?

F958B 17 Aug 2011 , 4:43pm

lfc

No, I am not into Japanese equities, but I periodically take a look at them. It would help if I spoke the language so that I could fully understand all that is going on in Japan - economically and politically.

From what I can see; an awfully large portion of the Japanese market is involved in relatively cyclical consumer and export industries or financials - which don't take my fancy.




jaizan 17 Aug 2011 , 8:21pm

Japanese export markets may see increasing competition from China and the companies suffer because of a strong Yen. Manufacturing is being moved overseas.

The domestic market is has a long term demographics issue, with an ageing declining population.

lookingforclues 18 Aug 2011 , 6:59am

jaizan

Sure Japan has big issues but my slightly tongue-in-cheek suggestion was just based on the comment by F958B about markets people have written off as never going to rise again. After the credit bubble and reinflation there aren't that many other assets classes that the same can be said for. Certainly commodities, property and bonds look expensive. Domestic equities less so but Japan stands out as the most moribund for longest.

If consensus was that Japan had no big issue and was cheap then it would already have risen. So basically you would expect negative news and sentiment to accompany a prolonged bear. The point being that if and when that changes the revaluation can be dramatic.

lfc

brightncheerful 18 Aug 2011 , 11:30am

People talk about the peak of the market and how prices now are low or good value in comparison, but the peak can only be pin-pointed long after it has been passed and each peak is a consequence of how things were before the market reached that stage.

As to whether prices now are low surely depends upon whether the higher prices could return. There is no reason to think they won't, conversely none to think they have to to. Interesting whenever the FTSE gets to 6,000 or more it takes a tumble; suggesting that anything much above is pushing it beyond its comfort zone. In July 2007, FTSE was about 6700, by March 2009 it was about 3500.

It is also likely that where prices are now could be considered a peak in their own right. I am looking forward to the FTSE dropping to around 4500 possibly lower later this year. The current yield of about 3% is not, imo, pricing in enough risk: there is no reason why yield should not be around 5% or so.

irateinvestor 18 Aug 2011 , 12:48pm

Lord Essex is right. You're wasting your time picking stocks. Why should anyone here (let alone their children) be able to find seriously undervalued stocks by spending hours pouring over sets of accounts which are designed to hide serious issues on earnings prospects.
If you think you're a fund manager then get a job as one and sell us your fund !
Much simpler to focus on asset allocation and even simpler too to look at overall market PEs for ideas on over or undervaluation.
I appreciate that this doesn't drive much business through a stockbroking service though !!
And the idea of taking a bood beating on your life's savings to learn a lesson about risk management well !
Why not send folk out onto the Motorway to learn how to drive ?

LeeJG 18 Aug 2011 , 12:51pm

F958B - as I was broke in 2003 it made no difference to me.

irateinvestor 18 Aug 2011 , 3:14pm

So, what now for all those 100% invested ?
perhpas that was not such a wise peice of advice after all.
Rule number 1. If a share falls 30% it can still fall another 100%.
Rule number 2 - whole markets can fall 70% + in reall bear markets. Going 100% in when they dip 10% is not clever or brave.

brightncheerful 18 Aug 2011 , 4:13pm

"I am looking forward to the FTSE dropping to around 4500 possibly lower later this year. "

I didn't expect the market to get going there today!

goodlifer 18 Aug 2011 , 11:27pm

Nothing like a good bear market to sort the men from the boys.

goodlifer 18 Aug 2011 , 11:34pm

Hi irateinvestor,

Rule number 999: bear markets sometimes recover.
They have been known to do so in the past.

goodlifer 19 Aug 2011 , 12:09am

It's obvious, even to people like me, that it makes sense to diversify.
But "asset allocation" seems to be something altogether more metaphysical, like phrenology, palmistry or astrology, and I've always ignored it

Does that mean I'm heading for disaster?
If so, why/

lookingforclues 19 Aug 2011 , 7:00am

BnC;

'The current yield of about 3% is not, imo, pricing in enough risk: there is no reason why yield should not be around 5% or so.'

Well the market could certainly take it there given current sentiment but a fundamental reason against 5% would be the implied yield gap with gilts. Even at 3% the market is yielding more than the 10-year variety which is a common yardstick for value.

But fundamentals can mean little during a panic.

lfc

wellington101 19 Aug 2011 , 7:47am

A good company is still a good company to invest in.
We will all still need banks and cash. Buying a good company at a lower price is even better, panic is great for investing, buy in the lows and wait for the profit.

Long term and great value investing in a good profitable company that has a long term history of paying dividends is this fools idea of a good investment.

No fool like an old fool, enjoy your investing and make money?

goodlifer 19 Aug 2011 , 3:08pm

I can see no good reason why a bona fide investor - as opposed to a trader or speculator - shouldn't, if he likes, ignore the market's antics altogether and just let the dividends keep thudding in.

But if - and only if - he chooses, he might want to avail himself of buying or selling opportunities. For example, I've just bought DGE, a share I've always thought attractive for the long haul but over-priced, for less than fifteen times earnings

The future's not ours to see, but is there any good reason to suppose that this time it's terminal?
Or can we expect footsie once again to stagger vaguely upwards in that time-honoured, erratic way we know and love so well?

bergward 22 Aug 2011 , 12:53pm

From the Lord Essex comment 'You are better off making calls on asset allocation.'
As a newbie, can somebody explain in simple terms what this means.
thanks in anticipation

goodlifer 22 Aug 2011 , 5:27pm

Hi berward,

My answer to your question is No, but of course I could be quite wrong.

Both Uncle Warren and Great-Uncle Ben seem to get by without a word on "asset allocation," and I've never got around to bothering about it.

goodlifer 26 Aug 2011 , 11:32am

Hi Lord Essex, hi again irateinvestor,

Like bergward, I too would be very interested in what is meant by "making calls on asset allocation."

Many thanks.

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