A Mid Cap Value Trawl

Published in Investing on 19 May 2011

Stephen Bland runs a value screen for the FTSE 250 index.

Following on from last week's mechanical trawl of the FTSE100 for value, I'm repeating the exercise this week on the 250 index. 

I usually feature the job on both these indices in successive weeks, the last time for the 250 being in January this year. Same idea exactly but on the market's mid caps. 

Similar precautions apply about the potential errors of the database I used and that Price/Book includes all assets and not just the value player's far more desirable, and more conservative, tangible asset version.

As always we're looking for multiple appearances plus possible indications, as signalled by the ubiquity of their members here, of whole sectors that have been given a kicking and which consequently may be ripe for investigation. 

The reason it may be worth noting sectors is that it is possible that decent value may be lurking amongst some of their constituent shares that don't feature in these tables. They may be just outside or simply missed by the shortcomings of the database I used.

Top Ten Yields

 Price
p
Forecast
Yield
%
C&W Comms (LSE: CWC)4810.4
C&W W/wide (LSE: CW)528.5
Provident Fin'l (LSE:PFG)9687.0
Catlin (LSE: CGL)4016.8
Thomas Cook (LSE: TCG)1566.6
Home Retail (LSE: HOME)2116.5
CPP (LSE: CPP)1236.4
FirstGroup (LSE: FGP)3576.4
Amlin (LSE: AML)4205.8
Beazley (LSE: BEZ)1295.7

Ten Lowest P/E

 PriceForecast
P/E
Enterprise Inns (LSE: ETI)853.9
Punch Taverns (LSE: PUB)755.3
Premier Foods (LSE: PRD)347.1
Thomas Cook1567.3
Laird (LSE: LRD)1408.2
Beazley1298.6
Dixons (LSE: DXNS)199.3
Paragon (LSE: PAG)19010.1
Marstons (LSE: MARS)11010.2
F&C AM (LSE: FCAM)8110.8

Ten Lowest P/B

 PriceP/B
Enterprise Inns850.30
Punch Taverns750.33
Barratt (LSE: BDEV)1160.38
Daejan (LSE: DJAN)2,7980.58
Home Retail2110.62
Laird1400.64
Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW)380.67
Catlin4010.67
F&C Asset Mgmt810.75
Thomas Cook1560.76

A triple for Thomas Cook

And we have one winner, well-known holiday business Thomas Cook Group makes the triple. Not that I'm attributing any value merit to the fact that it's well known, it's just that it is.

There are a number of doubles. Insurance business Beazley is in the yield and P/E tables whilst another in this sector, Catlin Group, a triple last time round in January, is in the yield and P/B tables. Also in those two tables is Argos catalogue retailer Home Retail which was the second of the two triples in January.

Featuring in the P/E and P/B tables are the pub chains Enterprise Inns and Punch Taverns which actually top both lists. Also in both of these is electronics supplier Laird and fund manager F&C Asset Management.

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Any cheap sectors?

The sector situation doesn't reveal any overwhelming presences. 

The strongest is insurance, just as it was in my examination of the 100 index last week, with four different shares in the sector making various appearances. 

Property based businesses figure too, with the two aforementioned pub groups plus housebuilder Barratt Developments and real estate share Daejan Holdings, both the latter as you might expect showing up in the P/B list.

There's a smattering of retail here with Home Retail and Dixons. No other sectors feature multiple appearances, the rest of the shares being a variety of different businesses.

Top for yield

Top of the yield list by a long way with outrageous figures, but with no other shows here, are the two Cable & Wireless companies. They cause repeated confusion by having such similar names after the break up of the old C&W last year. I wonder what bozo thought that one up. Probably got promoted for his contribution. I hardly know which is which and I've got one of them in the value portfolio. 

The question for investors in either or both of these two shares, if attracted by their yields, is whether the dividends are sustainable over time. A minor cut is forecast for C&W Communications but not enough to put them on a significantly less high, high yield. 

C&W Worldwide though has dividend increases forecast. Be aware that analysts' forecasts can and do go wrong.

In summary

So what can we conclude? Is Thomas Cook a value share? It's cheap as indicated by its triple showing here but that don't mean at all that it is offering value. I leave people to draw their own conclusions because this article is essentially just a mech trawl designed to throw up ideas for value investors to investigate further.

On sectors, insurance continues to be a hunting ground for value as it has been for some time. But you have to distinguish a share which deserves to be cheap from one which doesn't. Not necessarily that easy when the market is telling you otherwise but then that is what value investing in all about.

As always with value, watch the debt and avoid if there is an excess of it. Net cash is the ananda sought by value players but I don't do a net cash/debt table because that would exclude a lot of financial shares and therefore limit comparisons with the other tables I present which do include them.

More from Stephen Bland:

> Stephen does not hold any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool holds shares in Daejan.

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Comments

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CunningCliff 19 May 2011 , 12:56pm

'Ananda' is Sanskrit for 'bliss'.

Steven, I never realised you are of the Buddhist persuasion. ;0)

All the best,

Cliff

PS: Enterprise Inns, Punch Taverns and Premier Foods are all grossly over-loaded with debt, which explains their low PERs and why I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial bargepole!

57andrew 19 May 2011 , 3:03pm

Tommy Cook had a net profit margin of 0.03% in 2010 (source FT), net cash outflow in 09 & 10, is 66% geared, and a low quick ratio at 0.42. Here is a link to a recent FT report on TC.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/30b8a05c-7a13-11e0-bc74-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Mo5mWGqE

A good contrarian play? Not cheap enough for me yet.

DarkFratBoy 19 May 2011 , 5:46pm

On Beazley, I recently dumped my holding. Reasons below (from the www.iii.co.uk discussion board):

"I have reluctantly sold my Beazley stock.

I bought in January 2010 at £1.07 and sold at £1.2983 today, so it has produced a decent return even before taking into account the high dividend yield and special dividend.

While I am not particularly negative on the non-life insurance sector (with rates across the board hardening the next couple of years should see some positive results), and the current valuation of Beazley appears cheap, the significant director selling, combined with the disasters from the first 3 months of the year, have concerned me sufficiently that I have decided to sell.

To put the director selling in context, a quick search on www.digitallook.com (I can't post a direct link, as you need to be logged in, however registration is free so this is easy to access) will reveal that there has been significant director selling since the beginning of March.

This is summarised below:

Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value
09-Mar-11 Sell Jonathan Gray 130.00p 1,250,000 £1,624,999.94
12-May-11 Sell Nicholas Furlong 130.00p 367,442 £477,674.58
11-May-11 Sell Nicholas Furlong 130.00p 232,558 £302,325.39
21-Jun-10 Sell Clive Washbourn 123.00p 172,395 £212,045.85
04-Mar-11 Sell Clive Washbourn 125.25p 125,794 £157,556.99
04-Mar-11 Sell Jonathan Gray 125.25p 107,554 £134,711.39
03-Mar-11 Sell Nicholas Furlong 125.25p 62,896 £78,777.24
04-Mar-11 Sell Neil Maidment 125.25p 54,724 £68,541.81
04-Mar-11 Sell Andrew Horton 125.25p 53,758 £67,331.90
21-Apr-11 Sell Clive Washbourn 130.41p 41,848 £54,573.72
04-Mar-11 Sell Adrian Cox 125.25p 37,928 £47,504.82
23-Jul-10 Sell Andrew Horton 108.31p 30,570 £33,110.06
21-Apr-11 Sell Nicholas Furlong 130.41p 24,635 £32,126.35
21-Apr-11 Sell Jonathan Gray 130.41p 24,581 £32,055.93
03-May-11 Sell Adrian Cox 131.30p 23,869 £31,340.00
21-Apr-11 Sell Andrew Horton 130.41p 21,425 £27,940.21
21-Apr-11 Sell Neil Maidment 130.41p 16,585 £21,628.40
21-Apr-11 Sell Adrian Cox 130.41p 9,394 £12,250.66
03-May-11 Transfer From Adrian Cox 0.000p 45,740 £0.00
21-Apr-11 Transfer From Nicholas Furlong 0.000p 24,635 £0.00

Those familiar with the BEZ board will immediately recognise the seniority of these directors (if in need of a reminder, the board members' roles are summarised here: http://investor.relations.beazley.com/investorrelations/board/). Of particular interest is the fact that Nicholas Furlong, the director of risk, has chosen to sell nearly £1m of stock. According to the disclosed holdings on Digital Look he still has about £1m left, however it seems strange to lighten up by 50% at a time when:

- rates are hardening;

- the business appears to be undervalued relative to its peers;

- there is takeover action within the industry; and

- directors at other non-life insurers are increasing their positions (presumably for the reasons above).

Now, Beazley has a strong balance sheet, and significantly mitigated its exposure to the Japan disasters through reinsurance, so I don't think it is in danger of going bust any time soon on account of disaster risk. However, two points strike me as particularly relevant:

(1) the losses from Japan were enormous, and they are going to have to land somewhere. BEZ may have mitigated its risk through reinsurance, but who is to say that one or more of its reinsurers won't go bust as a consequence of the Japan and Australia disasters?

(2) in the latest interim trading statement the board estimated that the Combined Ratio (e.g. the amount paid out in claims and operating expenses as a percentage of premium income received) for the current financial year is likely to be in the mid-nineties assuming "no further significant catastrophe events during the remainder of 2011." Given that this is the trading statement for the quarter ending 31 March 2011, with 75% of the year remaining, that is a pretty big assumption.

In summary, my view is that massive selling by multiple directors at at time when you would expect buying (based on valuation, industry consolidation and rates hardening) is a pretty good signal that now is a time to reduce your exposure to BEZ.

Obviously DYOR etc.

Regards,

DFB"

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