Building The Perfect Paper Portfolio

Published in Investing on 4 January 2011

Take a "perfect" theoretical approach to your investment portfolio.

If you're reading this article, the likelihood is that you take much more direct personal interest in your investments than the bulk of the population. In fact many Fools manage their entire investment portfolio directly.

If you count yourself among this number, as I do, then it's necessary from time to time to step back and take a helicopter view of your investments and how they're going to contribute to your life -- in what manner and what stages.

Your Perfect Portfolio

Personally, I've found the tool of constructing my "Platonic" portfolio ideal on paper to be extremely helpful in this regard. It helps temper my overall judgement and assists me in the constant struggle not to get drawn into too many small, high-risk investments and a general over-reliance on individual company shares and sectors.

Of course, there is no "one size fits all" perfect portfolio. Each person has to decide for his/herself what their perfect portfolio would look like on paper depending on their age, employment status, equity in the property in which they live, the desire for income or capital growth -- and a whole host of other factors.

Nevertheless, there are some basic steps you may wish to take in devising your perfect portfolio on a blank sheet of paper.

Deciding on your acceptable risk profile, having taken into account all the factors only you can, is a logical starting point in my opinion. But tread carefully here. Markets have been extremely buoyant of late and you may have a more benign view than you would, say, this time two years ago when cash was at the top of many non contrarianly-minded investors' lists.

The risk table

Below is a rough risk table I constructed for my own purposes, moving from low-risk at 1 to high risk at 10:

1. Cash and gilts

2. Corporate bond funds, investment property

3. Corporate bonds

4. Unit trusts, exchange traded funds

5. Investment trusts

6. Large cap shares

7. Mid cap shares

8. Small cap shares

9. AIM / very small cap shares, covered warrants

10. Warrants, CFDs, spread-bets

The table is, admittedly, a simplified view of things. There are many potential investments missing and any such approach will always be fraught with anomalies.

Various collective investments have inherently different risk profiles in reality. And the list makes no distinction in share selection, of course, which is absolutely crucial for many value-hunting Fools. So, for example, a small profitable AIM stock whose valuation is well covered by cash and property shouldn't really be accorded the same "9" risk rating as a cash-strapped African gold miner whose valuation is flying on a wing and a prayer.

Similarly, a high-yielding blue-chip stalwart at level 6 or 7, is a very different prospect from an equally-sized oil explorer or techie etc.

But as a rough guide the table is helpful in helping you decide what proportion of investments you would ideally have in which categories and constructing your investments accordingly.

Don't forget sectors and world regions

Of course the other big considerations are sectors and international exposure.

Cross-referencing your ideal paper portfolio average scores against desired exposure to sectors and continents is essential in my opinion. Again, this is a matter for personal judgement, but bear in mind how much exposure you desire in which sectors.

For most people, an overall weighted mean average score in the 3-7 type range is probably ideal if it is achieved via a mix of investments, depending on age, employment, and a host of other individual factors.

Doing this exercise is worthwhile and you may surprise yourself if you take everything into account such as equity in property and pensions. There's often a huge difference between what people desire their overall risk profile to be and the reality.

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Comments

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Soicowboy 04 Jan 2011 , 1:39pm

Books by Larry E. Swedroe are very good on this subject area.

lotontech 04 Jan 2011 , 2:06pm

Happy New Year, David.

It probably goes without saying that personally I would not blindly rate 'spread bets' at the highest risk, because I regard spread betting merely as a vehicle for trading the other things -- large cap shares, small cap shares, indices, whatever.

Day Trading four-digit indices using big stakes in a spread betting account is very risky. Position Trading a diverse set of individual two-digit equities in a spread betting account with small (and growing) position sizes is considerably less risky... and more Foolish ;-)

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/12/22/a-foolish-guide-to-spread-betting.aspx

Arbitraggista 04 Jan 2011 , 3:33pm

Well said lotontech. We need less irrational bias on TMF and more objectivity.

rober00 04 Jan 2011 , 4:49pm

I use a low/medium/high model myself with a 60/40split between low and Medium/High at the year end

goodlifer 06 Jan 2011 , 10:01pm
goodlifer 06 Jan 2011 , 11:45pm

Many years ago I did the written exams for an sirline pilots' licence.
For flight planning, candidates were advised to treat the questions in a practical manner and "not to strain after theoretical perfection."
"Don't strain after theoretical perfection," seemed to work OK for the exam, and for real-life flight planning.
Does it work for the Great Game?

sbaguley 10 Jan 2011 , 5:23pm

Please consider the merit of Continental European shares, especially Germany (v.high % of exports, and alot ot China, et cetera, where weak Euro will not harm medium term outlook) and Switzerland, eg world wide brands owned by Nestle.

The US firms are OK if they have a big market share world wide.,

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