Diary of a Novice Investor #10

Published in Investing on 20 August 2010

Our diarist describes 6 lessons he has learned from his investing exploits so far.

In my last diary entry I said that the process of writing these articles had taught me some unexpected lessons about my motivation, approach and decision-making skills. 

Here I will reflect on these and share them with you. While this may seem off the beaten track for an investment article, my intention has always been to write a broad and totally honest description of my investing journey, even if that means I travel down a few by-roads and dead-ends. 

I am genuinely surprised about how revealing these articles have been for me and I hope that some readers will relate to my experiences and learn from them.

1. Our strategy for building wealth has always been half-baked

As I wrote in a previous article, my wife and I have done a good job of maximising our earnings and living well below our means. That strategy allowed us to grow our wealth more substantially than we had ever expected. 

Our motivation was simply to provide financial security and a decent standard of living, rather than to be wealthy or to have loads of nice stuff.

We made use of cash ISAs, moved money around to get better interest rates and I also got seriously into stoozing, becoming a bit of credit card expert in the process. But that was it.

2. Our investment strategy lacked focus

While our net worth was increasing through earnings and sensible spending, we didn't leverage what we had. 

Although we bought two properties, neither were pure investment decisions, so we did not apply any clinical rigour to the decision making. Where we have looked more closely at returns, our focus has been to minimise risk and to get guaranteed returns e.g. by paying off the mortgage. 

Thinking about stocks and shares has made me think much more seriously about how our money is working for us. For example, our mortgage is index-linked to the BoE base rate and is at 1.4%, so why am I still intent on paying it off as quickly as I can? Why not use that as a cheap source of money?

3. Our cautious approach has led to missed opportunities

When we bought our first 'investment' property, we bought it with cash. If we had taken out a loan we could have had a much better return on our money. 

We also had an option of buying the property next door. If we had bought both, we would have only required a 50% mortgage. When the property next door sold three years later for more than double the original asking price, we could have been the beneficiaries; sitting with £100,000 in the bank. 

Ah the benefit of hindsight!

4. I have a tendency to over-analyse, especially when being observed!

My tendency to over-analyse is not news to me -- nor is it news to my dear wife who calls it "dithering"! 

However, writing these articles has made me realise how much of an effect being observed has on my decision making. If I feel that I have to justify my decisions, then my over-analysis goes into overdrive. 

Where I might have made a reasonably swift decision, having to justify it makes me spend far too long weighing up the pros and cons. That is a bit of a revelation to me because I can see how this happens in the work place as well, so some very positive lessons to learn there.

5. I should be more prepared to go with my gut feeling

A few weeks ago, I had an interesting conversation about decision-making with a good friend of mine who runs an investment fund valued at over one billion pounds. We have been friends for many years and are very similar in many ways, but it became clear that we make decisions somewhat differently. 

While he does do some detailed analysis, he is much more governed by his gut-feeling than I am and he is prepared to make confident decisions based on that. Perhaps that is why he has the word Director in his title and I do not!

6. The importance of timing

Without speedy decision making, opportunities get missed. 

As I mentioned in diary entry #8, if I had been less concerned about justifying my decisions to the readers of these articles, I would have invested some money in index trackers when the FTSE-100 Index was below 5,000. 

By leaving it until this week, I have missed out on the opportunity for 11% growth.

Next time... 

Next time, I turn my attention to what I will do with the remaining £3,000 that I have ear-marked for equity investments.

Previous entry: #9

Next entry: #11

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Comments

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MrContrarian 20 Aug 2010 , 8:50am

I should be more prepared to go with my gut feeling
I had an interesting conversation about decision-making with a good friend of mine who runs an investment fund valued at over one billion pounds...While he does do some detailed analysis, he is much more governed by his gut-feeling than I am.


Your friend's gut feeling comes from thousands of hours of experience and perhaps an aptitude for investment before he even became a fund manager. When you've met Gladwell's 10,000 hour rule for mastery your gut feeling may be reliable. Emotions are usually the enemy of investors.

Charlie Munger says his best quality as an investor is being rational. It's not easy.

timthegambler 20 Aug 2010 , 9:55am

Very interesting article. I agree with the above comment about gut-feeling, why would you value a hunch over a rational thought process.

However, when I think about buying a share, I either am certain that it is cheap and will go up in the long-term (and so buy quickly), or change my mind endlessly and dither, which presumably is not rational.

I think I need to sharpen my decision making skills.

p.s. I find selling shares a lot worse.

rober00 20 Aug 2010 , 5:15pm

Be careful of making "quick decisions" as mentioned above without the benefit of years of experience to fall back on ( including mistakes)quick decisions can easily turn into "silly decisions" and that will probably leave you more indecisive than ever.

Bear in mind we tend to remember "the one that got away", (regret syndrom) whilst ignoring the one we rightly avoided.

FTSErider 21 Aug 2010 , 12:41pm

I think you should certainly follow your gut feeling, but only about companies that you know... When SuperGroup (SPG.L) floated on the stock market at 500p a share, I knew that they would perform amazingly, as it's a great brand, all the kids wear it and they are expanding fast... however I did not have enough cash at the time to invest... look at it now six months later, shares valued at more than 1000p....

...so I'd say go with companies that you know well.

midnightcatprowl 21 Aug 2010 , 8:44pm

I thought this series was losing focus but I think episode 10 is excellent. It might perhaps be good compulsory reading both for those of us who are too cautious about investment and those of us who are over-confident.

I was brought up in a home where financial caution ruled which was good as far as it went in that my parents didn't go borrowing money they couldn't pay back. Unfortunately financial caution also tends to work against wealth building (and also I think against wealth creation both for the individual and for society as a whole). In my case it led to regarding what Fool members would call 'investment' as a dangerous form of gambling. They were not puritans and did hold Premium Bonds and my Dad put a modest amount on the Football Pools each week but beyond this neither of them gambled beyond things such as buying charity raffle tickets to support the charity rather than in any particular hope of a prize.

They'd have found it hard to find money to invest but with more confidence in the usefulness of investment they might have ditched the 'Pools' and the 'Premium Bonds' and had a go at investing even if in a very conservative way.

I have to admit to having carried this attitude into my own adult life and later regretting it when I finally found the Fool and gained a better understanding of the concept of investment, particularly perhaps the importance of focusing on overall gains over a long period of time rather than fretting about short term or particular losses which often aren't real losses at all just that what you theoretically might have sold for is no longer available.

I'm looking forward to episode 11

Lynn

billyboy121 23 Aug 2010 , 11:51am

Hi Alastair

An interesting installment, and a valuable reminder to know yourself - it's very useful to be self aware, I find my problem is being too ready to buy without a full level of analysis and then being inflexible with a current plan rather than being willing to review it and make changes if necessary (e.g. I sold BP, having set a 10% target for three months - this was hit after 3 weeks and I sold up, but perhaps should have reassessed things as the shares continued to climb and I really should have recognised that, having been confident about the buy in the first place)


A couple of thoughts on two extracts

'For example, our mortgage is index-linked to the BoE base rate and is at 1.4%, so why am I still intent on paying it off as quickly as I can? Why not use that as a cheap source of money?' - this is good thinking, although the obvious counter to that is a possible (likely?) interest rate rise and also liquidity - if you invest in shares, which can be depressed by interest rate rises, or which may hit a trough for other reasons then you may be caught out by an increased cost of borrowing - it'll depend on your levels of leverage and income also though of course.



'When the property next door sold three years later for more than double the original asking price' - I don't think that anyone could have called the housing market, its ludicrous rise over the last decade or so and also its collapse, or equally the micro markets in various parts of the country with their corresponding variances. Don't beat yourself up on that one, just count your blessings that you were able to participate in property ownership in the first place, you are one of the lucky ones!

UrbanDreamer 24 Aug 2010 , 7:38pm

While I agree with MrContrarian and others about "Gut feelings" there is a flip side.

How do you get the "thousands of hours of experience" without doing anything. To a certain extent you have to take your lumps.

Every mistake that you make should be viewed, not as a sin, but as a learning experience.

TBH you have to get use to both making and loosing money before you can feel comfortable publishing your losses. Don't expect it to be easy at the start.

I now trust my "gut" about selling. It's been spectacularly right now and then. Buying is a far more difficult and I research what my gut tells me, but I don't ignore it.

RobinnBanks 24 Aug 2010 , 11:30pm

I certainly do learn from your articles Alistair - after reading some of them I think, "Well, that's taught me a lesson!" (;-0)
When are you going to invest? The market is low - it may go lower, but it's bound to rise eventually. Probably up for a Christmas rally.

FTSErider 27 Aug 2010 , 12:29pm

...yes, when are you going to invest? We want to see you picking some shares!!!

4ever15 27 Aug 2010 , 7:10pm

Hi Alistair
Property and cash ISAs I am your twin. 2010 is my year to change TOO.
But first PLEASE congratulate yourself on the property - over the last 10 years we would both have done one hell of a lot worse in an index tracker.
Had a truly dreadful experience in the early 90s. Aided and abetted by a charming rogue of an IFA we decimated an EXCELLENT occupational pension scheme when my partner left to go freelance. 10 years on, we were fortunate to finally receive some compensation now in a SKANDIA pension fund.. its gone up maybe 40% , annuity rates have halved so in real terms we are about where we were before compensation :-).. - the cash ISAs have done WAY better.
Round 2000 as a thankyou to the next (marginally better) IFA who helped us get the compensation, we bought 2 equity ISAs.
We ignored both the pension and the ISAs for 8 years i loathed Skandia - finally 2009 I sold them, 1 at face value 1 less.. and got online access to the pension. PROGRESS believe me.
In 2000 against all advice wanting no more to do with pensions or IFAs we borrowed 50% on our London flat and and bought property. France .GREAT its gone well What next? London flat is far and away our biggest asset..we let it the return is pathetic but at least it IS a return and the place is there..
2010, interest rates are nowhere, London property is over priced? Maybe. I dont want to be dealing with repairs etc forever, share seem like less work, Like you i want to sell. But I'm a properyt addict. Nothing else feels as tho its going to give me the returns propery has. Please may i see the light and get off the propery treadmill. There are other ways i am sure of it. Enjoy the weekend.

4ever15 27 Aug 2010 , 8:03pm

Gut feeling AH YES your friend is wired differently.
Forgot to say mine is brilliant for property and total rubbish with shares.

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