3 Reasons To Buy Shares

Published in Investing on 13 July 2010

Risky? The real risk is not owning shares.

A social acquaintance -- let's call him 'John' -- has never bought a share, invested in a fund, or bought an index tracker. The raciest investment decision that he's made, he tells me, was recently moving a savings account from The Co-operative to Santander. Or was it the other way round? I forget.

John, it's probably fair to say, needn't worry too much about his standard of living in retirement. A generous public sector employer's pension beckons, it seems.

But sadly, John is far from alone in eschewing shares, investment funds, index trackers and ETFs. Even among people who have good cause to worry about their standard of living in retirement.

So here are three reasons why investing in the stock market should form part of your plans for your long-term savings.

1) Asset class out-performance

Year in, year out, research such as the prestigious Barclays Equity/ Gilt study -- which has been published continuously since 1956 -- continues to reaffirm the long-term out-performance of shares over other popular asset classes.

Tracking asset returns since 1899, it shows that shares outperform cash, corporate bonds and government gilts ‑‑ many, many times over.

With dividends reinvested, £100 invested in equities in 1945 would be worth £119,238 today. £100 in cash would have grown to £6,133, while £100 of gilts would have produced £5,087.

Over the entire period since 1899, the out-performance is even more striking. £100 invested in equities would be worth £1,486,860 ‑‑ while £100 gilts would be worth £23,688, just ahead of the £20,026 return from cash.

2) Individual out-performance

Those are the returns from tracking the market, of course. In other words, if you'd been able to buy an index tracker in 1899 or 1945, those are the sorts of returns you'd be looking at, less some costs.

But many individual shares have done vastly better than that, and over shorter periods of time.

Small caps, mining stocks, oil stocks, and pharma stocks, for instance. Each has their fan club of investors who reckon that their knowledge of the industry or market in question enables them to pick winners likely to outperform the market as a whole.

And out in the world of investment funds, sectors such as emerging market funds, equity income funds and 'special situation'/ recovery funds have all delivered stellar market-beating returns.

Take Fidelity's Special Situations fund. Managed by Anthony Bolton from 1979 to 2007, it delivered a 20% annual return over a 25 year period, compared to 7.7% for the FTSE All‑Share Index.

In other words, three times the sort of return measured by the Barclays Equity/ Gilt research. Fund manager Neil Woodford is another long-term out-performer.

3) Profit-linked returns

Shares -- either held directly, or indirectly through funds -- are a stake in real businesses, of course. And many of those businesses return part of their profits to investors in the shape of dividends. The more profits, the higher the dividend pay out.

Now, dividends aren't a certainty. But what is a certainty is that dividend payouts are linked to profits, not policy. The interest on bank deposits, on the other hand, is largely set by the Bank of England, acting on behalf of the government, at a level determined by economic policy.

And it won't have escaped your notice that even as corporate profits have started growing again, bank rate remains stuck at a 300-year low of 0.5%. Where I -- and a number of other observers -- expect it to stay until mid-2011.

Until then, the interest on bank deposits will also remain at rock-bottom levels -- in many cases, below the rate of inflation, implying a negative real return.

Rare exceptions apart -- Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY), Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) and BP (LSE: BP) -- dividends are set by businesses, on the basis of their profits, and not by officialdom on the basis of economic policy. And I know which I prefer.

The bottom line

So there we have it. I'm convinced. And I hope you're convinced. But what will John say? Doubtless I'll find out when I next pop into the village pub. Comments in the box below, please.

More from Malcolm Wheatley:

> Malcolm owns shares in Lloyds Banking Group.

> If you're in the market for buying shares, consider opening an online broker account with The Motley Fool's Share Dealing Service. You can buy and sell shares in real time for a flat rate of just £10. Click here to open an account for free today.

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Comments

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mull1 13 Jul 2010 , 3:53pm

Totally agree. However, surely the real battle is to do better than inflation over the long term? Or, for most people, the real battle is to have a long term lump sum that can be put somewhere to beat inflation and will never be needed for some crisis or event that makes them sell it at probably the worse possible moment!

supasap 13 Jul 2010 , 4:22pm

john will say he is the smarter one for choosing the public sector with a gold plated pension whilst we wrestle sleeplessly between fear and greed

CGDaveS 14 Jul 2010 , 10:47am

Asset class out-performance

Assuming John isn´t Methuselah compound returns from 1899 ain´t going to much use to him.

He could point out that over the most recent 20 year period, equities have been outperformed by gilts and over the most recent decade by gilts AND cash.

It´s anybody´s guess what the next decade will bring

jasonjarvisgbr 14 Jul 2010 , 10:53am

I know this is a Foolish mantra....but when are you going to face up to that fact your advice on investing, sound thought it maybe, has not paid off - and someone with index tracking fund could easily be worse off now than 10 years ago ?

SanMiguel101 14 Jul 2010 , 11:07am

Wasn't there a post recently that showed how the 25:25:25:"5 portfolio outperformed a 100% equity portfolio?

billyboy121 14 Jul 2010 , 1:10pm

John probably is the smarter (luckier) one for having the public sector pension, even with the planned cuts in annual accrual rates but these pension schemes are dwindling - the younger generation won't have the luxury of these schemes: they'll have to pay large amounts of tax to fund those of the older gen, but will themselves have to take their chances in the markets with the funding of their own retirement.

Mike10613 14 Jul 2010 , 2:18pm

The returns on shares can be good because of lack of regulation and a market where investors get screwed by brokers and dealers. The LSE should be fully computerised and open 24/7 and we could show the world that London is the investment centre of the world then. Maybe people like John would invest out of his outrageously high public sector salary with it's super duper pension. We may see return that make banks offer better interest rates and less volatility in the markets. Investments would be safer and more attractive. Companies would be required to be more honest in the annual reports instead of hiding bad news in gobbledygook and small print. With markets going up maybe 20% a year steadily rather than boom and bust or bull and bear in market - Starbucks speak; we may all start buying shares?

bonzodogg 14 Jul 2010 , 2:38pm

I guess the point of going back as far as 1899 is not to show that a life spanning 3 different centuries will net a load of cash, but to demonstrate that in all probability the decline of the last 10 years will not continue forever.

Over time, shares outperform cash and gilts. Fact.

TomRoundhouse 14 Jul 2010 , 4:29pm

This piece is so shallow you could not drown a woodlouse in it. Quoting returns averaged over a period starting in the 19th century is meaningless and for one simple reason. Markets move through prolonged periods when the average return is zero of worse after charges, taxes and inflation. These are followed equally prolonged periods of double digit average returns. If you invest at the start of a prolonged bear market, you can be effectively wiped out by the time the tide turns; and finding the next Anthony Bolton at the start of their career is luck not judgment.

nish16 14 Jul 2010 , 11:29pm

While I agree that shares are likely to out-perform in the long run, but index tracking in modern developed markets will not produce the kind of returns quoted. The markets were much less developed before 1950s, therefore, the rapid growth that is seen as markets get established, is unlikely to be seen again in the developed markets. This is a good reason to look to the less mature emerging and frontier markets.

archibold 15 Jul 2010 , 12:04pm

"Over time, shares outperform cash and gilts. Fact." As the article states since 1899, yes, over the last 10 years nope for a lot of people.

Although I buy individual equities I do ponder that the advantage over bonds etc may have been arbitraged out. In that because peeps expect equities to outperform they will pay more for them (forcing everyone else to pay more for them) which negates the outperformance. Don't know the answer, but certainly something I ponder....

spinquark 15 Jul 2010 , 9:09pm

I prefer to see equity investment as buying into economic growth, and after all without long term economic growth we are all done for anyway.

Lets say company efficiency grows at say 2% per annum, that economic activity(i.e. rate at which money recirculates) grows at say 2% per annum, and that inflation is say 3% per annum. Then this means share prices should rise 7% per annum. Couple that with a dividend of say 2% per annum which is reinvested and you have perhaps 9% growth or 6% growth in real terms. There will be volatility but over the long term of say 30 years this is a reasonable long run expectation.

This differs from buying other assets such as Gold, or property which are simply subject to prices driven by supply and demand. Yes demand is linked to economic growth but so may be supply and therefore there is no long term growth engine driving such assets. Like the price of wheat these assets will rise and fall without any long term underlying growth driver. Over say 30 years a 0% growth rate in real terms would be expected.

Of course, everyone is trying to switch and time between assets, but not everyone can be a winner, so stick with the long term winner.

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