Budget: The One Shining Light

Published in Investing on 23 June 2010

The Great Austerity Budget should at least ensure interest rates stay low for quite some time.

By the time you read this, the emergency budget will have been sliced, diced and dissected by the good and great of British journalism.

In a nutshell, prepare now for fewer benefits and higher taxes. The years leading up to the next scheduled general election will indeed be lean. But if everything goes according to the coalition's plans (yeah, right…) the structural deficit will be in balance by 2015, and government borrowing will be only 1.1% of GDP by 2015/16.

Budget From Hell

The budget from hell had been well flagged, so there were no massive surprises. In fact, the only surprise seems to be how well it appears to have been received by the public.

Most people understand the country can't continue borrowing and spending its way out of this economic mess, and that means taking some pain now in the hope of long-term gain.

So will the Great British Austerity Drive of 2010 to 2015 do the trick?

It really is anyone's guess. Keynesian economists will have their doubts, saying public spending is the best way to eventually stimulate a private sector recovery.

The Real Pain Begins Now

You could argue we've already tried that, the government stimulus initiatives of 2008-9 stopping us sliding into a Great Depression II. Maybe. But although the past couple of years have been a struggle, the real pain begins now.

Martin Wolf of the Financial Times is one of the most respected journalists and economists in the country. His opinions are said to be valued by governments on both sides of the Atlantic.

Wolf is a very vocal Keynesian. He calls the budget "brave", and a "gamble", saying the sense the country "could not get away with a measured approach is right." Wolf also says "As a citizen of the UK, I hope (the government) pulls it off."  Meanwhile, The Sun reckoned "it's now time for the country to roll up its sleeves, and lift the economy off its knees."

The FTSE greeted the budget with its sharpest fall in a fortnight. So much for the budget supposedly being business friendly!

But to be fair, doing the damage were sharp declines in oil stocks, inevitably lead by BP (LSE: BP), and not the more UK-facing companies. For example, shares in leading retailers Marks & Spencer (LSE: MKS) and Next (LSE: NXT) rose despite VAT increasing to 20%, and likewise Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) and Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) shares rose despite the introduction of a new bank levy. In was yet another case of sell the rumour, buy the fact.

A Long Hard Slog For Investors, Too

Don't expect the stock market to suddenly lurch up or down based on this budget, or in fact expect the immediate health of the UK economy to improve. By now everyone should know we're in for a long hard slog, both economically and from an investment perspective.

Expect a largely flat market for some time to come. Volatility continues to be relatively high, although I can see a time in the not too distant future when things will calm down and the market will bob up and down in a relatively narrow range.

As ever, US markets can and will throw a periodic spanner in the works, like they did last night when the Dow fell almost 150 points. Doing the damage was a surprise drop in existing US home sales for May.

Negative surprise + jittery market = Dow down, with the FTSE following closely behind.

A Silver Lining For Investors

Still, there is a silver lining for stock-market investors, if not for savers. Martin Wolf says we're set for continued low interest rates in the years ahead.

All of which gives the green light for investors to continue the hunt for dirt-cheap, high yielding blue chips. Just don't expect instant capital appreciation.

Let us know your thoughts on the budget in the comment area below.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

Max878 23 Jun 2010 , 6:19pm

Once again, borrowers are quids in and savers are stuffed. It's not a shining light for me.
Let me guess, Bruce - you're a borrower?

margaretmac 23 Jun 2010 , 7:21pm

As a pensioner Who does not pay tax, (as my pension is not high enough to attract the beast I can earn another 3 and a half grand before this kick in I wish, I retired at the age of 63 after having a major operation) I think this budget is an insult to anyone's intellegence, they intend to link pensions to pay (Ha Ha)pay is to be frozen for two years, (No raise there then), they have raised vat to 20% (I call that a pay cut, which ever way you look at it)
They want the industrial base to make and export more, WHO destroyed the industry in this country, or have they forgotten (Margaret Thatcher, Of The TORY party).
And they are still trying to blame Labour for the deficit, and not the idiots who bought sub prime morgages, and nearly brought the country to its knees

M McAlister
OAP
Rotherham

glad69fool 23 Jun 2010 , 7:44pm

Echo that, Max87, about savers and god save us from the misguided like margaretmac. If you seriously think Labour have not been responsible for any damage to this country's economy, then reflect on:
- the Labour idiot who handed our money to bail out the banks with no real strings attached
- that other Labour idiot who was never straight with us in his 10 budgets AND allowed mismanagement and waste at our expense AND stole from pension funds to fuel that waste.

As a pensioner then you should know better or are wilfully blind. Labour messes up the economy and then the Conservatives get it in the neck for sorting it out. That has been the relentless pattern since at least the early 1970s. So PLEASE can everyone wake up and realise this!!!

jacko666 23 Jun 2010 , 8:02pm

Al politicians are liars and opportunists who feather their own nests at our expence. Both parties have kicked pensioners in the teeth . Pensioners are the main savers and rely on interest to pay the bills. Whilst middle class
pocket liners benefit from cheap mortgages.
The best thing is to stuff your cash under you mattress and claim benefits. Like the rest of the work shy scum of this fair land.

chat01 24 Jun 2010 , 1:04am

There was a bigger decline in manufacturing under the last Labour government than under Thatcher. So can we please drop the Thatcher destroyed manufacturing myth. Globalisation has made it difficult to manufacture profitably in the West, when China or India will make it at a fraction of the cost.

atseyes 24 Jun 2010 , 9:03am

Following on from margaretmac's and chat01's comments, yes, manufacturing did decline during Margaret Thatcher's years in office, since she reused to bail out the lame ducks - famously, Rolls-Royce - which had previously relied on State help to make up for antiquated machinery, old-fashioned work practices, etc. Our competitors, principally West Germany and Japan, had benefitted from largely US help to rebuild their war-shattered industries with modern machinery.
Also, our industries suffered from the unions, who insisted on out-of-date work practices and high wage increases, and would strike at the drop of a hat to win their arguments, in order to 'protect' the interests of their members.
All of this meant that our industries were over-manned and inflexible, with largely shoddy goods turned out - ie, totally uncompetitive.
With more and more manufacturing going to Asia, the principal difference remains labour costs. Chinese or Indian workers work for greatly reduced wages compared to their Western counterparts.

malchill 24 Jun 2010 , 10:04am

Magaret Mac Thatcher sorted out Callaghan's mess and now Blair and Brown probably voted in by idiots like you have allowed it to happen again.When will people ever learn that Labour always leave a bigger mess than when they come into office.
The coalition government now have to get this country back onto its feet and have had to introduce austerity measures last seen after WW1.
But dont blame the coalition Margaret blame Labour they didnt have a clue how to build on the prosperity that they inherited in 1997 they just wasted it away and then went on a borrowing spree to try to continue it.
regards malc

Luniversal 24 Jun 2010 , 1:50pm

I am getting increasingly fed up with the staff writers here kicking the majority of their readers in the teeth by gloating over a policy of artificially cheap money.

Don't these schmucks realise that the majority of us are older, traditionally minded, thrifty people who have finished paying off the mortgage (I never had one), avoid overdrafts, abominate credit cards and usury... and who SAVE, more than they punt on high yield shares or anything else?

Recalibrate your priorities, TMF, and stop breathing noisy sighs of relief every month the MPC lets deadbeats off the hook. This country is drowning in debt; the sooner deleveraging begins in earnest and the housing bubble goes pop, the better for the larger economy in which our children and grandchildren will have to survive. A fine legacy of fecklessness the Boomers have bequeathed to them!

UpHillAllTheWay 24 Jun 2010 , 2:00pm

I'm no expert on this, but I have heard that Margaret Thatcher paid off the national debt during her office. It did increase a bit before she went, but she handed over a country in pretty good standing. Since the Labour tenure, the debt has increased very substantially. It can't be reversed immediately - it takes time to turn these things around. For example, the pension age is set to rise - but not now - only in five years' time. The BBC recently stated that before the national debt can begin to decrease again in (I think) 2013, the debt will amount to £90,000 PER HOSEHOLD in the UK. That is what the period of Labour government has done for us.

Margaretmac says "[People] are still trying to blame Labour for the deficit, and not the idiots who bought sub prime morgages". When the bank lends 125% of the value of a property in mortgage, out of a supreme confidence that property prices are "safe as houses" and will always rise, who is the bigger idiot - the borrower or the bank? Which of them would you expect to be in a better position to know? Which has a broader view of the housing market? Which employs staff to follow and predict trends - the borrower? Building societies and banks operate in a competitive environment, and any bank that had operated in a manner that hindsight tells us would have been beneficial, would have lost market share to the competition. The reason why banks ran into the mess where they found themselves was because the environment allowed them to - and the parameters of the environment are set by government, or by organisations (eg. the FSA) that are set up by government.

Now, margaretmac, present your arguments instead of only your bile.

Drunsfleet 24 Jun 2010 , 2:58pm

It was the private financial sector that caused the current financial malaise though Labour's over-spending certainly exacerbated it. It will again be the hard working people in the public sector paying for the mess made by the high flyers in the private financial sector, paying with their taxes and pensions for the prosperity of the few. These austerity measures may be needed to some extent but such is the ideological zeal that they are being applied and likely to be copied by other like minded governments that never mind avoiding a double-dip recession we could plunge into a depression far worst than the 1930's - and believe me we won't all share in its pain - those that caused it will still be luxuriously ensconced in their gilded homes. The so called Flash Crash in the US was no such thing - no internal technical causes have been found - and indeed its lower levels were surpassed several weeks later - it happened on May 5 when Wall Street at last digested the full horror of a Conservative Liberal coalition with fiscal and monetary policies sure to doom the global economy - it has been queasy since and when the UK budget was confirmed this week it lurched down again.

Drunsfleet 24 Jun 2010 , 3:03pm

Oops - election and Flash Crash were May 6 not 5.

billyboy121 24 Jun 2010 , 3:52pm

UpHillAllTheWay, i'm with you on the national debt situation, I'm not Thatcherite but I think Maggie sorted out the undemocratic overbearing unions (who were again raising their collective ugly head at the end of the last Labour administration) but when you say:

- 'The reason why banks ran into the mess where they found themselves was because the environment allowed them to - and the parameters of the environment are set by government, or by organisations (eg. the FSA) that are set up by government.'

are you saying that the banks were not in fact led by greed but were instead the unfortunate dupes of the government and the FSA?


Drunsfleet - you mention 'It will again be the hard working people in the public sector paying for the mess made by the high flyers in the private financial sector' - ok, but it's actually the taxes generated by the private sector that pay for the entire public sector, which is essentially one massive cost base that the last government was increasing and paying ever more by borrowing: these cuts would have to come eventually when either the cost of borrowing went up, the UK was downgraded or the UK economy crashed or indeed a mixture of all three. Governments, like individuals, can't live on credit forever, sooner or later the debts have to be paid off.

billyboy121 24 Jun 2010 , 4:01pm

Sorry, a couple more things before I get off the box - the whole sub prime issue.

In terms of the 'idiots' who bought those mortgages, it was certainly a gamble on their part that property would continue to increase in price but in fairness this was a long term trend which there was no *visible* reason to believe should abate.

In terms of the banks, (1) they were buying bundle of financial instruments which had been ok'd by a variety of otherwise reliable credit ratings agencies. I don't pity them (they are banks after all) but again they probably took the not unreasonable view that the risk on these instruments was visible and therefore factored in to the price paid. It wasn't. (2) they were lending increasing sums of money to people they would normally not have touched as a bad risk on the basis that the security provided should be enough (as property was increasing in price year on year - again, the same point re the long term trend as with individuals) and that the flow of cheap money to them (the banks) would continue forever. Now a child could tell you that nothing lasts forever, so to base a whole business model around that assumption is just silly - irrespective of whether they would lose market share to competitors, they should have thought long and hard about whether that was the kind of market that they wanted to be in and what would happen if the cost of money rose. Their commercial decision to stay in that market and not to have a contingency plan regarding the cost of money was entirely their decision and had nothing to do with the FSA, the government or anyone else.

Drunsfleet 24 Jun 2010 , 4:34pm

I agree with most of what you say Billyboy - my concern is the timing. The point of government spending at this time is not to solve debt with more debt but that unlike individuals and businesses governments with their own currency can print more of it and keep spending when all else are reigning in - to keep the fragile economy kindled - when it then shows signs of becoming more robust and self-sufficient then you remove the artificial government stimuli - do this too soon and the recovery stalls to a halt - this austerity now policy of the current UK Coalition is what prolonged the Great Depression?

And I am not making a party political point - Labour were at the steering wheel and part and parcel of the croney capitalist system that led to this crisis - a worrying fusion of government and high finance with little concern for the wider society - and the ongoing moral hazard of privatized gain and socialized loss....

billyboy121 24 Jun 2010 , 5:43pm

Hi Drunsfleet - I agree that it's a tough call - inflationary pressure already seems to be rising due to quantitative easing and there's a limit to how much you can do this without driving the value of the pound down further - that may be good for exporters but not for investors and particularly not for any party lending to the UK government, which again could create pressure by leading to the UK being downgraded and the cost of borrowing increasing as a result - yet further pressure on UK in its efforts to service the sovereign debt mountain.

But as you say there is a risk that to withdraw the artificial stimulus will lead to a slow down. Hopefully business will take over where the government left off and this budget will give people confidence that things are being sorted out. People tend to (yes, a crass generalisation coming) equate pain as a necessary thing to recover sometimes so perhaps this will help. I can't help but think that there isn't any other way - the party's over, it's time to pay the bill.

tigerroach 24 Jun 2010 , 5:49pm

margaretmac - Are pensions not linked to the higher of salaries (inc private), inflation and 2.5%? I think that's pretty generous really.

tigerroach 24 Jun 2010 , 5:55pm

Luniversal - I am 39 and have paid off my mortgage so low interest rates aren't ideal for me but, unlike you it seem, I'm not selfish enough to ignore the fact that many will struggle, and even lose their houses, if interest rates rise.

Luniversal 25 Jun 2010 , 11:44am

tigerroach- Cry me a river. Yes, I'm 'selfish' enough to expect a decent rate of interest on savings from taxed income instead of the lowest for three centuries, and I was also stupid enough never to have borrowed money in my life. I paid cash for my home, after saving for nearly 20 years. If others cannot afford to pay a proper rate for mortgage loans, let 'em be evicted and serve them right for overreaching at my expense.

billyboy121 25 Jun 2010 , 4:53pm

Luniversal, I think 'stupid' is a relative term. e.g. One could save up cash in a standard savings account, battling against inflation , or one could borrow and have inflation as a constant ally eroding the debt.

To be honest, no one expected interest rates to be this low but a couple of things I've learned about life (1) it never turns out how you expect (2) you have no right to expect anything, you have to plan for things and make them happen.

It's this wrong headed attitude of expectation that has led people into risky borrowing because they expect to have a right to home ownership.

UpHillAllTheWay 26 Jun 2010 , 1:46pm

BillyBy, I'm probably a bit late on the scene with this response for you to ever read it, but I'd like to defend myself.

You asked "are you saying that the banks were not in fact led by greed but were instead the unfortunate dupes of the government and the FSA?"

My answer is that that is not at all what I was saying. We all know the banks were led by their drive for profits - call it greed if you will - but that is surely predictable. We can predict that very few people in high corporate positions will be led by anything other than the dog-eat-dog, hard-nosed desire to win, whether they be in politics or business - but especially in finance. Businesses will make more and more profit at any price. It is down to the regulators to predict the price and curb business verve by setting the parameters of the environment in which they operate. Regulators surely know what drives business - it's common knowledge.

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