With the price of gold breaking records last week, do the world's top investors think this is a bubble?
The price of gold rose to an all-time record last week, peaking at just over $1,250 per ounce. Fears about sovereign debt and lax monetary policy were the main drivers, with investors seeing gold as the only currency with integrity.
Money has been pouring into gold ETFs (exchange traded funds), the largest of which, the SPDR fund in the US, holds just over 1,306 tonnes of physical gold, valued at over $51bn, or more than half of the annual mining output.
But what do the world's top investors think of gold? Do they see it this as just the start of a long-term boom in gold prices, or as a bubble about to burst?
Gold bears
Legendary value investor Seth Klarman has long been cautious about commodities in general, and gold in particular:
"They generate no cashflow, and so they are extraordinarily tricky to value. Gold has also just hit new highs, that should make value investors -- who tend to look for assets that are on sale -- very nervous."
Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has been credited with causing the mild sell-off from Tuesday's highs, saying that he didn't "fully understand the movement in the gold price". He added:
"There's a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety in financial markets right now … some people believe that holding gold will be a hedge against the fact that they view many other investments as being risky and hard to predict at this point."
It's a pretty harmless observation, but given that many of the arguments for gold are implicit or explicit criticisms of Bernanke's monetary policy, his is hardly a disinterested opinion.
Commodities guru Jim Rogers has gold, but it's not his favourite investment. He shares the concerns over money -- "paper money everywhere is suspect, paper money everywhere is being debased" -- but is looking more towards commodities that are trading below their highs, and in the precious metals area his preference is for silver.
Professor Niall Ferguson of Harvard, well known for his book and TV series The Ascent of Money, has shifted his position partly towards gold, based on the fact that ownership of gold is becoming more accepted as an investment strategy:
"When you look at what's happening in the gold market, it's not so much fundamentals that are driving gold up from $1,000 towards $2,000. It's a fact that more and more people feel that they should hold gold as perhaps 10 percent of their portfolios. If everybody thinks that, if that becomes a standard investment strategy, then gold is going to go a lot further than its present price. So I've really re-thought my attitude towards gold almost on that momentum basis."
Just over a week later, he said "a lot of the upside [in gold] is already there -- the time to buy was in 1999, not 2010", and was more positive about the Norwegian krone and the Swiss franc. Adrian Ash of BullionVault was quick to point out that Prof Ferguson was decidedly bearish on gold in 1999, when gold hit a low of $252 per ounce.
Gold bulls
Clearly the sentiment is not all bearish, or the price would not be where it is. David Einhorn, of Greenlight Capital, and John Paulson, are just two of the noted gold bulls.
Earlier in the year, George Soros described gold as "the ultimate asset bubble", but still decided to run with momentum rather than fight it. In addition to investments in gold miners such as Kinross Gold and NovaGold Resources, his Quantum Fund reportedly has $600m invested in gold ETFs.
Marc Faber, of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, is particularly gloomy on the future of fiat money:
"There's no other way out but to print money … in the long run, all paper money will go exactly to its intrinsic value, which is zero. It's a race in the purchasing power of paper money to the bottom, and the only assets that will, for sure, keep their purchasing power are precious metals."
Jeremy Grantham, of value investors GMO, summed up the problem of gold:
"I hate gold. It does not pay a dividend, it has no value, and you can't work out what it should or shouldn't be worth … It is the last refuge of the desperate."
… and then he bought some, jokingly saying that this should signal the top of the market.
Is this the top?
Does the capitulation of Grantham really signal the top of the market? Does the fact that business entertainer Jim Cramer urged the public to buy gold mean that public awareness and desire for gold is now at its peak?
Why not let us know your opinions in the comments section below.
More from Padraig O'Hannelly:
> Padraig has exposure to gold through a physically-backed ETF.