Gold Bulls Vs Gold Bears

Published in Investing on 14 June 2010

With the price of gold breaking records last week, do the world's top investors think this is a bubble?

The price of gold rose to an all-time record last week, peaking at just over $1,250 per ounce. Fears about sovereign debt and lax monetary policy were the main drivers, with investors seeing gold as the only currency with integrity.

Money has been pouring into gold ETFs (exchange traded funds), the largest of which, the SPDR fund in the US, holds just over 1,306 tonnes of physical gold, valued at over $51bn, or more than half of the annual mining output.

But what do the world's top investors think of gold? Do they see it this as just the start of a long-term boom in gold prices, or as a bubble about to burst?

Gold bears

Legendary value investor Seth Klarman has long been cautious about commodities in general, and gold in particular:

"They generate no cashflow, and so they are extraordinarily tricky to value. Gold has also just hit new highs, that should make value investors -- who tend to look for assets that are on sale -- very nervous."

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has been credited with causing the mild sell-off from Tuesday's highs, saying that he didn't "fully understand the movement in the gold price". He added:

"There's a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety in financial markets right now … some people believe that holding gold will be a hedge against the fact that they view many other investments as being risky and hard to predict at this point."

It's a pretty harmless observation, but given that many of the arguments for gold are implicit or explicit criticisms of Bernanke's monetary policy, his is hardly a disinterested opinion.

Commodities guru Jim Rogers has gold, but it's not his favourite investment. He shares the concerns over money -- "paper money everywhere is suspect, paper money everywhere is being debased" -- but is looking more towards commodities that are trading below their highs, and in the precious metals area his preference is for silver.

Professor Niall Ferguson of Harvard, well known for his book and TV series The Ascent of Money, has shifted his position partly towards gold, based on the fact that ownership of gold is becoming more accepted as an investment strategy:

"When you look at what's happening in the gold market, it's not so much fundamentals that are driving gold up from $1,000 towards $2,000. It's a fact that more and more people feel that they should hold gold as perhaps 10 percent of their portfolios. If everybody thinks that, if that becomes a standard investment strategy, then gold is going to go a lot further than its present price. So I've really re-thought my attitude towards gold almost on that momentum basis."

Just over a week later, he said "a lot of the upside [in gold] is already there -- the time to buy was in 1999, not 2010", and was more positive about the Norwegian krone and the Swiss franc. Adrian Ash of BullionVault was quick to point out that Prof Ferguson was decidedly bearish on gold in 1999, when gold hit a low of $252 per ounce.

Gold bulls

Clearly the sentiment is not all bearish, or the price would not be where it is. David Einhorn, of Greenlight Capital, and John Paulson, are just two of the noted gold bulls.

Earlier in the year, George Soros described gold as "the ultimate asset bubble", but still decided to run with momentum rather than fight it. In addition to investments in gold miners such as Kinross Gold and NovaGold Resources, his Quantum Fund reportedly has $600m invested in gold ETFs.

Marc Faber, of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, is particularly gloomy on the future of fiat money:

"There's no other way out but to print money … in the long run, all paper money will go exactly to its intrinsic value, which is zero. It's a race in the purchasing power of paper money to the bottom, and the only assets that will, for sure, keep their purchasing power are precious metals."

Jeremy Grantham, of value investors GMO, summed up the problem of gold:

"I hate gold. It does not pay a dividend, it has no value, and you can't work out what it should or shouldn't be worth … It is the last refuge of the desperate."

… and then he bought some, jokingly saying that this should signal the top of the market.

Is this the top?

Does the capitulation of Grantham really signal the top of the market? Does the fact that business entertainer Jim Cramer urged the public to buy gold mean that public awareness and desire for gold is now at its peak?

Why not let us know your opinions in the comments section below.

More from Padraig O'Hannelly:

> Padraig has exposure to gold through a physically-backed ETF.

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

BarrenFluffit 14 Jun 2010 , 11:46am

As gold has limited practical uses its value is backed by the goods and services produced by economic activity. Undertaken largely by investable company's.

SanMiguel101 14 Jun 2010 , 1:24pm

The gold hype is largely US driven.
Is there any point in golding gold in UK terms?
It's meant to be an inflation beater in case of moey printing. The debt in the UK is, I believe, £11k per person - small compared to something like the US.

supasap 14 Jun 2010 , 2:03pm

I've been a gold (fund) investor for a while so made some dosh thank goodness, just waiting for fingered to let me know when to take the elevator down.......

bimber 14 Jun 2010 , 6:57pm

Barren, cash also has limited uses, but many investors move to cash and wait for prices to fall when they perceive them to be too high. Here is a chart of the US market with gold as its price unit, rather than dollars.
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

There are times when investing in economic activity is just not economic.

Afrosia 15 Jun 2010 , 12:44pm

Why gold and not silver/platinum/palladium/copper/manganese?

I genuinely don't get it. I don't understand why people talk about gold as though it's some kind of undisputable currency? Surely oil would make a better currency hedge?

Why not look at the US market with silver, sugar, Swiss Francs or the FTSE 100 as its price unit? Each are equally relevant as I can see it.

If you fear inflation then wouldn't you be better off shorting bonds through an ETF or something?

Sorry for the thought explosion, I just genuinely do not get the whole gold thing!

bushcontraire 15 Jun 2010 , 3:25pm

Gold is not used in industrial processes simply because it is is so scarce, eg it is an excellent conductor of electricity but why would you use it if there are so many cheaper more abundant alternatives. I am heartened by the fact that there are still many investors who "just don't get it". I am an out and out gold bull, there is no western currency that I trust, gold is the purest form of money, the Euro is done for, sterling the same and watch out for the dollar, the flight to safety that has pushed it up to 4 year highs is over, it is the next one to topple, when it does, investors may finally "get" gold

LetsGoa 15 Jun 2010 , 4:47pm

@bushcontraire Gold is used industry, look at your sim card i'm sure it has gold, same as high quality cables. but yeah even then its still recoverable.

I do however agree with you, all these so called investors who don't get it are living with their heads in the clouds. How can you get reading companies accounts and not get western economies can never repay their debts unless they Inflate or die. Both outcomes negative for shares & bonds.

Gold knows this and thats why it has outperformed the stockmarket for a decade.

TomRoundhouse 15 Jun 2010 , 5:07pm

I first got into the yellow stuff in late 2004. I saw a rising trend and jumped aboard. As time has gone on I still see the underlying trend intact.That it will all end in tears I have no doubt but I shall be dancing by the door by then, When the music stops I shall be out of the door "like a rat out out of an aqueduct."

On another level I simply see gold as a currency. Nothing more or less. Consider. If you went on a world tour without travelers' cheques but a big bag of Sovereigns or Krugerrands, you could turn them into the local currency anywhere in the world. If that is not the ultimate form of money could someone please tell me what is.

In the last three years every paper currency has fallen against gold. Eventually the process will reverse but in the meantime why not just accept the world as it is rather than stand on one's dignity pontificating about how it should be.

Money is supposed to be a store of value, divisible and and a medium of exchange. Gold fulfills all these requirements and better than any paper currency AT THE PRESENT TIME. That is enough for me.

Afrosia 15 Jun 2010 , 5:08pm

Scarcity doesn't necessarily create value though. There are millipedes that are extremely rare, but I would say that an elephant or human has a greater intrinsic value.

How do I judge whether gold is over/undervalued?

I know very little about gold, I admit, but I don't quite understand why you wouldn't buy another currency, like the Aussie dollar, to hedge against currency risk? At least that is backed by something slightly measurable.

"gold is the purest form of money" - why is it "purer" than say oil, platinum or silver?

Afrosia 15 Jun 2010 , 5:15pm

"If you went on a world tour without travelers' cheques but a big bag of Sovereigns or Krugerrands, you could turn them into the local currency anywhere in the world"

Could you not do the same with tea, oil or most other commodities though?

curedum 15 Jun 2010 , 5:33pm

"If you went on a world tour without travelers' cheques but a big bag of Sovereigns or Krugerrands, you could turn them into the local currency anywhere in the world"

Sure, but not only is it quite heavy but what happens when it's stolen? Also changing gold into cash is more complicated than travellers cheques or an ATM with debit card.

Gold is a hedge, not an investment; antiques, art and fine wine are similar stores of wealth.

In days gone by the Italians hoarded Parmesan cheese to protect themselves at times of high inflation - it keeps well and you can always eat it. You can't eat gold, as King Midas discovered.

bimber 15 Jun 2010 , 6:16pm

First, gold as money:

Animals could function as money. They can be accepted as part of a trade by someone who does not want the animal but expects that someone else will accept it in return for something useful. However, the animal will require food and shelter and it could die. This means it loses value in between the 2 transactions and could end up worthless. To be more useful as money the animal would have to indestructible and divisible. Small animal shells could do the job, and have done in some places.

Gold has these required properties of money but so do other metals. Gold wins because its density means that it is rare in terms of both weight and volume, so a large amount of value can be stored in a small purse. It also has a high stock:flow ratio because it has few industrial uses, unlike silver. You could use oil or sugar as a currency hedge but it's not easy to store a lot of value. You can use an ETF but you will not own the commodity, you will own a contract for delivery of that commodity. So your wealth will depend on someone else fulfilling their promise. And because the value of those commodities is derived from their usefulness in the economy, your wealth will be doubly leveraged to the performance of the economy (and vulnerable to technological or behavioural changes). Ideally, money's value should derive only from the expected level of trade within the economy - if there is more to buy, prices fall.

Gold's and currencies' value now and in the future:

A gold coin exists in reality, not only as a promise, so there is no "counterparty risk" associated with it. Cash is issued as debt so its value depends on peoples' willingness and ability to repay the debt. It also requires legal tender laws and relies on the government not printing large amounts, unless there is an equivalent amount of debt taken on which people believe can be repaid. The problem in Western economies is that there is no confidence that the debt can be repaid, other than by printing money which does not have any associated debt. Doing that will devalue the currency. Because the debt cannot be repaid the currency is already devalued, but like the banks using a "mark to imagination" model for their assets, people still put too high a value on their cash. It might take a while for people to accept the real value of their money, and also the real value of the economy, is considerably less than what it appears to be.

Whilst the adjustment takes place, gold remains constant. Well, nearly constant. Because the amount of trade (in the West at least, but the East and South may be affected by the West's decline) is likely to fall, the demand for money will fall so gold will lose value. But there is nothing to compare it with which is not losing value faster, so you will not be able to gauge the decline in value. There will be companies, regions and sectors which flourish but in general as we experience either deflation from debt-default or inflation from government money printing, wealth will be destroyed. The price of everything, even cash, will fall relative to gold. As the chart I linked to above shows, the process may stop when the Dow Jones is valued between 3 and 1 ounces of gold. And UK houses may be worth 70 ounces at the bottom of the market:
http://gold.approximity.com/HP_UK_in_gold_1930.PNG

Another way to look at gold's possible price it is to imagine that the US were still on the gold standard and the amount of borrowing it has done from foreign countries is equal to its claimed gold reserves. Under the Gold Standard it would have shipped its reserves abroad but instead it issued debt. To repay the debt by selling gold, the price would have to be sky high.
http://gold.approximity.com/gold_price_models_sinclair.html

bimber 15 Jun 2010 , 6:18pm

"not only is it quite heavy"

Some of us could last a fortnight on 2 ounces!

supasap 15 Jun 2010 , 6:53pm

some good fundamental points here, I am concerned about beating inflation and that's why I chose gold but I haven't a clue when to sell..... my other target was packets of cigarettes in uk..... I am confident they will beat inflation over next 5 years but, it is against the law and, secondly, it is immoral

bimber 15 Jun 2010 , 11:53pm

Stock market rebound: recovery or easy money rocket fuel?
http://www.fgmr.com/signal-from-the-stock-market.html

This suggests that they can't maintain asset prices unless they devalue the currency. When priced in gold, the S&P 500 is the same level it was just 3 weeks after the start of the bounce.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&st=2009-03-01&en=2010-06-15&id=p23695908610

5753225 16 Jun 2010 , 12:16am

William Davies, one time editor of Punch magazine, experienced currency collapse in Germany. He observed that when the chips are really down no one is interested in gold. What is used for currency is whiskey and cigarettes. So if you think that the end of the financial world is coming, then these are the commodities that you should be investing in.

bimber 16 Jun 2010 , 3:14am

How easy is it to store £5,000 in whiskey and cigarettes? Can you carry it? Solar powered hot water, wood burning stoves and a kitchen garden would be better investments if the financial system is going to collapse.

Being born in 1933, the collapse Davis experienced would have been more than just financial; even land may not have protected his wealth. Had he been able to flee, having his wealth in whiskey would not have been a good idea. Despite the collapse of the nation, gold owned in Germany before the war would still have value after the war and it's a lot easier to hide for the duration than a crate of whiskey is. 4 ounces would have bought a unit of the Dow Jones, ready to ride the post-war recovery to its peak of 27.9 ounces.

Even if you have other tradeable assets, not having gold makes no sense.

bimber 17 Jun 2010 , 2:00pm

I believe we are in a deflationary period in which prices are kept high by the enforced devaluation of the currency. JP Morgan explains that gold and silver may do well in this environment but other commodities do not.

http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-explains-why-gold-is-a-great-bet-during-deflation-2010-6

mathgeek2 18 Jun 2010 , 9:22pm

"that's why I chose gold but I haven't a clue when to sell"

The short answer is you probably won't sell. When a government agent - not necessarily the gov, could be JPM in the US for example - prints money to avoid making tough financial decisions it gets that much easier to print more money afterward, until the currency is worthless. Ofcourse printing money buys time, but that only matters if you're going to die before the economic stimulation wears off.

The way you'd know it's time to get out of gold, silver, etc is when the central banks start seriously raising interest rates to above the level of inflation. This is extremely unlikely though. Consider the US organization http://www.shadowstats.com/, which tracks economic indicators using the same definitions they used in the 70s (US has given the CPI (price-inflation indicator) a downward bias of right around 5%; they also use a ridiculously narrow definition for unemployment; I don't know if other Western ccountries are the same).

While the Fed's key rate (the overnight interest rate) is at .25 % shadowstats says the true American unemployment rate is 22%. I live outside the States but this jives with what I've been hearing. With interest rates so low and UE already so high, the interest rate would have to go to something like 10 - 15% to protect the US dollar. That would destroy the illusion that the American economy is recovering. But then at least you'd start the process of economic healing.

But that's not going to happen. Instead you'll get hyperinflation, which actually is worse. Thus your currency will be destroyed.

At that point you won't sell your gold - you'll spend it. BIG difference there.

But you wouldn't want to have much gold. Are you going to go into Denny's and pay for it with a $1200 dollar bill? That's about what a gold coin the size of a quarter is currently worth. This is why gold itself was pointless in the Weimar Republic, it was worth too much.

Instead you'll have a few gold coins and many silver ones, exchanging some of your gold for silver when you need spending money. It definitely could be say cigarettes or dried soybeans instead of silver as long as you don't consume them.

lavinia34 30 Sep 2010 , 3:48pm

@matthewgeek2
You make a key point which many 'gold' commentators have not touched upon. That being 'you won't sell your gold - you'll spend it.'
Gold is money! And now there is a way to purchase gold is small amounts that will combat the issue of gold 'being worth too much'.

A company in Germany/Swiss is producing the first world currency in gold, which one can purchase in amounts of 0.5g, 1g, 2.5g and 5g, providing flexibility and mobility! The way they have put the product together is very interesting and their vision is long term.

Ultimately,the currencies are going to crash and as stated by some of the commentators here, it is then that those who don't 'get gold' will finally 'get it' and want to purchase it in real terms (not etf) and exchangeable manner.

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.