Bolton Is Back

Published in Investing on 26 November 2009

Anthony Bolton plans to launch a Chinese fund next year.

So you thought you'd missed the chance to tie your financial fortunes to Britain's most famous fund manager? Well, think again.

Anthony Bolton, legendary manager of Fidelity Special Situations, hung up his fund management boots in December 2007 but is now back in the saddle and heading East.

His fund was perhaps the most famous UK-based investment fund of all. If you had invested £1,000 when Bolton took charge in December 1979, you would have had £148,200 when he handed over to Sanjeev Shah 28 years later. That's an increase of nearly 3,000%, three times the return on the FTSE All-Share. No wonder investors have fond memories of him.

But now he's no longer a happy memory, because he's returning to the fray.

China on his mind

Bolton has clearly missed the cut and thrust of fund management, and has decided to go where the action is hottest, which is China.

As he says himself: "I firmly believe China is the investment opportunity of the next decade. I have been a regular visitor since 2004, when I started meeting and investing in Chinese companies. After spending the last few months in Asia, I have become increasingly excited by the prospect of managing a portfolio investing in the tremendous growth potential of China."

If anybody needed reassurance that emerging markets are the future, you couldn't get it from a better source.

Bolton wondering

Bolton's confidence is a rebuke to those who believe China's markets have been artificially inflated by Beijing's massive fiscal stimulus programmes. He believes a year into a bull market is probably too early to start worrying about asset bubbles.

While acknowledging that he has missed the "bargain stage" for Chinese stocks, he claims he can still find good value over there. He also believes China will become the second largest stock-market in the world during his lifetime, and as this closed market opens and liberalises, opportunities should abound.

Any portfolio gains will be augmented by long-term currency gains, particularly if the yuan ultimately floats. Sterling may be weak as water right now, but with the yuan held artificially low, your investment pounds could stretch that bit further.

Bolton wandering

Bolton plans to relocate to Hong Kong in early 2010 and will launch his fund at the end of March. I suspect it might be heavily subscribed.

One or two commentators have linked his eastern shift with HSBC (LSE: HSBA) chief executive Michael Geoghegan's move from London to Hong Kong. They see is as yet more evidence that the East is rising and the West is sinking.

Given the self-pity on these shores right now, that is a tempting conclusion to draw. But there is still plenty of talent left in this country. The West Is Still The Best, even if China still looks like the future.

Go East, young man

I had assumed that since Bolton had been delivering the goods for three decades, he must be quite old. In fact he is only 59. Since more and more of us are likely to work to 68 and beyond, he is still a relatively young man in modern terms. Certainly too young to be hanging up his investment boots.

Investors will be hoping he will run this fund for at least 10 years. Will he stick around that long? Having pulled back once, he might do it again. But he might also have realised this was a big mistake, one he doesn't want to repeat.

Bolton is 20 years younger than Warren Buffett, who was born in 1930. If Buffet is any guide, investment instincts don't rot with age.

Investors who get in at the beginning could enjoy two decades of Bolton. Many will like the sound of that.

A special situation

Stepping into Bolton's shoes is quite a daunting task, so how has Sanjeev Shah fared? Pretty well, actually. Fidelity Special Situations is first quartile over one and three years, ranking 75 out of 345 funds in the UK All Companies sector over the last 12 months. It is up 42% over the last 12 months, against 37% on the FTSE All-Share, according to figures from Trustnet.com.

Investors who stuck by the fund won't be complaining too much, which must be a weight off Shah's (and Fidelity's) shoulders. But there is only one Anthony Bolton, and now he is charging hell for leather towards the hottest investment market on the planet.

He hasn't released any details about his new portfolio, but he has suggested it may be a bit more aggressive than Fidelity's existing China funds. I suspect many investors won't bother too much about what's inside the tin, but will be seduced by the name on the label.

For once, that may be enough.

Nobody's perfect

Bolton's return is a sign that people don't just manage money to make more money, they also do it for fun. Investing is clearly in his blood. His only regret is that he didn't start the fund a year earlier, before rather than after this year's dramatic recovery.

In this respect he is just like every other investor on the planet, all of whom are wishing they had thrown money into the market a year ago. He is only human, after all.

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Comments

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bouleversee 27 Nov 2009 , 11:12pm

Is this going to be a Fidelity fund or something he's launching independently?

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