Forget 2012, next year looks pretty dicey.
It has been a storming year for stock markets, but every investor is asking the same question: when is it going to end? And even more crucially, how will it end? With a bang or a whimper?
So I thought I'd line up the main threats to share prices, and which pose the biggest threat to markets.
Rising inflation and interest rates
Cheap money has driven this year's stock market rally. The big worry is that this has created an asset bubble, and when interest rates rise, it will go pop.
The bulls say: So what? The recent increase in CPI to 1.5% was a blip, caused by rising fuel costs and the falling pound, there is plenty of spare capacity in the global economy, and central bankers are committed to keeping base rates low.
The bears say: The printing presses are rolling, inflation has fallen less than expected, VAT goes up on 1 January, and central bankers are no longer in control of events.
Danger rating: Inflation may rise in the short-term, but interest rates could stay low for years. 4/10.
End of QE and fiscal stimulus
The US and UK have been printing money as if it was made of paper, while China has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into fiscal stimulus programmes, but the global economy still stumbles. What happens when the printing presses fall silent?
The bulls say: Best not think about it.
The bears say: Central bankers have spent all their ammunition to questionable effect and barely kept the economy afloat. Next year it sinks.
Danger rating: Nobody knows how well the cash injection worked, but everybody fears the withdrawal symptoms. 8/10.
Public debt
Public borrowing this year could total anything from £175bn to more than £200bn. Debt now swallows 12% of UK tax revenues. The US, Japan and much of Europe are in an equally parlous state.
The bulls say: Debt can wait. The priority is to keep the economy motoring, we can clear the deficit from the proceeds of growth later. As a last resort, we can always inflate our way out.
The bears say: If the UK doesn't aggressively cut costs, it could end up in a debt spiral, pushing up interest rates, worsening the deficit and possibly leading to a run on the pound. Japan has shown the way, and the West will follow.
Danger rating: The scale of debt is so vast the human mind can't take it in, but soon it is payback time, and this could be a big drag on markets. 8/10.
Tax rises and spending cuts
Both are coming sooner rather than later, and at a scale the public doesn't even begin to understand.
The bulls say: The damage will be offset by continuing loose monetary policy.
The bears say: Fiscal tightening will lead to rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, business retrenchment and shrinking growth, leading to a double-dip recession.
Danger rating: Can stock markets really escape the fiscal strangling? 9/10.
China crisis
Many fear Beijing’s mighty 4 trillion yuan (£359 billion) stimulus package has created a massive stock market and asset bubble, but it won't last forever. How long will the US allow China to export cheap goods and unemployment to the cash-strapped West?
The bulls say: China is now the engine of the global economy. Car sales are up, bank lending is soaring, inflation remains low and GDP growth is now expected to exceed 8% a year
The bears say: The trade imbalance between China and the West was a major factor behind the credit crunch. The West can no longer afford to buy China’s exports, and homegrown consumers have yet to plug the gap.
Danger rating: If China catches a cold, the rest of us could get swine flu. But the West has more pressing worries without fretting about China. 6/10.
Rising oil prices
Oil has more than doubled from $37 a barrel to around $78 a barrel. How much higher can it go?
The bulls say: The recession should slow demand for oil, keeping prices steady.
The bears say: When oil hit $147 last year, US consumers stopped spending, and disaster followed. It doesn't have to hit those heights to cause real damage. $100 a barrel should do it.
Danger rating: Shrinking US demand might keep the price in check, but watch out for those speculators. 7/10.
A disaster tsunami
The danger is that several or all of these nightmare scenarios will hit us at the same time, casting stock markets into oblivion.
The bulls say: That's just scare-mongering.
The bears say: Run for your lives.
Danger rating: Doesn't bear thinking about. But how likely is it? 7/10.
This market has climbed a wall of worry and could do it again in 2010, but it is up against forbidding odds.
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