Six Months Of Bull-Market Winners

Published in Investing on 10 September 2009

The FTSE is up 45% in six months, closing above 5,000, but which shares have set the pace?

The FTSE 100 closed above 5,000 this week -- 5,004.3 to be precise -- for the first time in nearly a year.

By a strange coincidence, it's also six months to the day since the nadir of the bear market. These four indices all marched in lockstep to their respective (intra-day) bear-market lows on the same day, 9th March, but just look at how they've bounced back since then:

IndexSix-month gain
FTSE 10044.6%
FTSE 25059.4%
FTSE Small Cap72.2%
FTSE All Share46.7%

Before getting too excited about the small caps, though, bear in mind that they suffered the most during the preceding carnage.

So who are the winners?

Twenty members of the FTSE 100 have more than doubled in value during the past six months:

CompanySix-month gainMarket Cap (£m)Price (p)
Barclays (LSE: BARC)497%40,445367
Kazakhmys (LSE: KAZ)311%5,7911,082
Vedanta Resources (LSE: VED)259%5,1401,884
Lloyds Banking Grp (LSE: LLOY)226%28,846106
Legal & General Grp (LSE: LGEN)217%4,26773
Xstrata (LSE: XTA)203%26,514904
Old Mutual (LSE: OML)201%4,89793
Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS)199%32,07457
3i Group (LSE: III)183%3,014311
Prudential (LSE: PRU)169%14,059557
Wolseley (LSE: WOS)147%4,1471,461
Eurasian Natural Res. (LSE: ENRC)137%11,236873
Aviva (LSE: AV)127%11,011402
HSBC Holdings (LSE: HSBA)117%114,620661
London Stock Exchange (LSE: LSE)117%2,169802
Anglo American (LSE: AAL)105%26,9352,046
Petrofac (LSE: PFC)103%3,278949
Liberty International (LSE: LII)102%3,063542
Invensys (LSE: ISYS)102%2,434302
ICAP (LSE: IAP)101%2,813430

Data Source: Digital Look

Clearly the banks and miners have done particularly well. Anyone brave enough to invest in Barclays (LSE: BARC) at the right time, and is still holding on, would now be sitting on six times their original investment. Even the train-wreck that was Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) has tripled since March.

And the losers?

It's been hard to lose money recently, as the rising tide has lifted nearly all boats. In fact, only three constituents of the current FTSE 100 have fallen in value:

CompanySix-month lossMarket Cap (£m)Price (p)
Reed Elsevier (LSE: REL)-3.0%5,682469
BAE Systems (LSE: BA)-2.9%11,576327
RSA Insurance Group (LSE: RSA)-0.2%4,236126

Survivorship bias

The eagle-eyed among you will have noticed that Petrofac (LSE: PFC) on our leader board wasn't actually a member of the FTSE 100 back in early March. It only joined a couple of weeks later, and we should really be looking at the companies that were members of the index on that date

From that early-March cohort, five companies have dropped out of the headline index and not yet re-entered, and to be fair, most of those have done pretty well, too:

CompanySix-month gain/lossMarket Cap (£m)Price (p)
First Group (LSE: FGP)104%1,949404
Tate & Lyle (LSE: TATE)81%1,909416
Whitbread (LSE: WTB)69%2,1581,232
Amlin (LSE: AML)7%1,886382
Drax Group (LSE: DRX)-1%1,725473

And of that bunch, it was announced on Wednesday that Whitbread (LSE: WTB) will make a re-entry to the FTSE 100 in the September re-shuffle -- stay tuned for more details of that.

Where now?

All those gains are in the past, of course, and the big question now is whether the market can sustain these levels and continue to make progress. I'm no market timer, but you'll find plenty of opinions on our discussion boards. What do you think? Give your opinion in the comment boxes below.

For ideas on how to beat the market, why not check out Maynard Paton's Champion Shares service -- you can take a 30-day trial free of charge. His most recent tip was issued just yesterday.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

theRealGrinch 10 Sep 2009 , 2:51pm

the dash for trash is key. this is a bubble and it will be pricked before christmas

supasap 10 Sep 2009 , 3:54pm

there are some who believe that the FTSE is heading for 1600....whatsisname oh yes Fingered .... must be shorting like mad

Jonesey12 11 Sep 2009 , 1:19pm

Harvey Jones here:

Are you two really that bearish? Wow. I've been holding some cash back in case of a reverse, but I'm not that convinced it will come. It's hard staying out of the market at moments like these.

Heraclitusll 11 Sep 2009 , 2:33pm

Harvey - Harvey - theReal Grinch has to be right. I think you are a dyed in the wool optimist. The fundamentals are just not there. Retail spending is poor, unemployment rising, the punters mostly are having to pay off their debts, taxes will rise - from where are company profits going to come - especially as there is now no more room for cost cutting???....
The best thing you can do now is SELL into this "suckers' rally" - at least everything except defensives and solid companies paying big safe divvies.

dugthebug 11 Sep 2009 , 3:55pm
dugthebug 11 Sep 2009 , 4:05pm

Great if you were lucky enough to buy these shares when they were at the bottom. I had Lloyds TSB shares but got rid of them when they were £1.00 to try cut my losses. I was reluctant to buy at the bottom in case they became 100% nationalised. In fact one of my favourite share at the moment is "boring" old Royal Sun Alliance. RSA has never defaulted on paying a dividend at least while I've had them. The share price is fairly stagnent at the moment, but I have confidence in the future. Other shares that have bounced back recently to my surprise are Huntsworth and Gladstone.

supasap 12 Sep 2009 , 8:33am

good post Bimber...... interesting comments..... how boring life would be without fear and greed determining the fluctuations....... hope you are compiling some comments now for the fluctuations we are witnessing eg "no more boom and bust" I think Gordon Brown said in the 1990's

TMFNatasha 14 Sep 2009 , 4:00pm

Test comment

bimber 03 Oct 2009 , 6:58pm

More of those Pompous Prognosticators
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/barisheff070909.html

There will always be booms and busts and they will always look like blips to some people many years hence because the currency many people use to measure things has been devalued so greatly. These people will enrich the ones who pay attention.

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