As the UK Government invests up to £37 billion in Royal Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds TSB/HBOS, will Gordon Brown go down as the man who saved the global banking system? Bruce Jackson reflects on a horror week for stock market investors.
It was the stock market week from hell.
On Friday, the FTSE 100 recorded its third-biggest fall on record, losing 8.9%. It lost an astonishing 21% for the week, its worst performance since Black Monday in 1987.
Ordinary stock market investors like you and I were completely shell-shocked with the loss of value incurred over such a short period of time. Pension fund values were also decimated. In some cases, life savings were reduced to a fraction of their previous value.
And it may not be over yet. The future for global financial markets remains uncertain. Anything Governments from the US, UK and around the world have tried to date, has failed to stem the tide.
Who’s to say today’s injection of up to £20 billion into Royal Bank Of Scotland (LSE: RBS) and up to £17 billion into Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY) and HBOS (LSE: HBOS), will stabilise financial markets and stock markets?
A Weekend Of Reflection
The weekend has been a time to reflect and regroup. Below I’ve put together a series of thoughts and ideas about last week, and about the future, an altogether bleaker future than many of us were looking at just a few short weeks ago.
- If your share portfolio took a turn for the worse last week, you’re not alone. I would guess about 98% of all portfolios headed south last week, the only ones saved being those who were sold short.
- In this poll conducted on our very popular Paulypilot’s Pub discussion board, of the 380 votes to date, 51% of people seen their portfolio drop more than 41% from its recent peak, and only 5% of people’s portfolio is down less than 10%.
- Even master investors like Warren Buffett have got their timing wrong. Buffett’s US$5 billion preferred stock investment in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) was made when its shares were $120. As of Friday’s close, Goldman shares traded at $89. There are even doubts surrounding Goldman’s very survival.
- Just over a week ago, in this article in the Financial Times, the UK’s version of Buffett, Anthony Bolton, said “I would say shares are as cheap as I’ve seen them in my lifetime of managing money…” After that, the FTSE 100 index lost another 21%.
- The stock market collapse, the threat to the financial system, job security and the forthcoming recession is on most people’s lips. In a straw poll of all the people I spoke to about it on the weekend, it was universally accepted that the good times were most definitely over. Any talk of early retirement is now nothing more than talk.
10 Years Down The Stock Market Drain
- Some people are estimating they have lost 10 years of savings. It takes a long time to build up your wealth, through hard working, diligent saving, and smart investing. In one relatively short period of time, a decent chunk of that wealth has been erased. Many of us will have to turn the clock back 10 years and start the long saving and wealth building process again.
- The only person to blame for your portfolio woes is you. If you own banking shares, like me, and you thought house prices were over-valued, like me, you should have sold your bank shares, unlike me. If you owned more speculative shares, you’ve now learnt why they are called speculative shares. The list could go on and on.
- Having said that, it was impossible to predict the scale and the speed of the stock market sell-off. It was difficult to predict we were heading for what is looking like a deep and prolonged recession. You and your portfolio are living through unprecedented times.
Will Gordon Brown Be The World’s Saviour?
- In a bizarre way, I wonder whether this whole credit crisis will see the political resurrection of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. As I write, it seems increasingly likely many of the other European economies and the US too will follow the “Brown Model” of part nationalising large parts of their banking systems. Could Gordon Brown go down in history as the man who saved the globe from financial Armageddon? Could he win the next election?
- If you are sitting there thinking “I haven’t lost any money because I haven’t sold” I’d respectfully suggest you are deluding yourself, especially if you are holding banking stocks. Most banking stocks have permanently and materially fallen in value. Many small company speculative stocks, particularly in the commodities sector, have permanently and materially fallen in value. Write them down, and move on.
- However, there are some companies whose share prices have been hammered who don’t deserve the mauling they’ve received. In time, they should bounce back, but not as quickly as they’ve fallen. The other thing that’s changed from a week ago is the guarantee of recession, with the very real prospect of it being a long and painful recession.
The Masters Of The Universe Were Wrong Too
- Which reminds me – predicting the future with any great certainty is a mug’s game. There are plenty of highly paid economists, investment bankers and the like, and as far as I know, none of them predicted the near complete collapse of the world’s banking system.
- My own view of the future is twofold…1) This is not the death of equities. We’ve taken a large hit, and are battered and bruised, but from here, the stock market will offer decent returns, and 2) We are in for a tough couple of years. The stock market winners will be people who slowly, steadily and rationally rebuild their share portfolios, aiming for between 8 – 12% annualised returns over the long-term.
Friday 10th October 2008 may go into the history books as the day the markets hit the low point of this particular bear market. Let’s hope so.
More: The Credit Crisis Survival Guide
> If you are looking for a home to part your savings, compare the rates of all savings accounts via The Motley Fool’s savings centre.
> Of the companies mentioned in this article, Bruce Jackson has a beneficial interest in HBOS.