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The Stock Market Week From Hell

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By

Bruce Jackson

From the Fool blog

Local Police Station Is Useless!

Published in Investing on 13 October 2008

As the UK Government invests up to £37 billion in Royal Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds TSB/HBOS, will Gordon Brown go down as the man who saved the global banking system? Bruce Jackson reflects on a horror week for stock market investors.

It was the stock market week from hell.

On Friday, the FTSE 100 recorded its third-biggest fall on record, losing 8.9%. It lost an astonishing 21% for the week, its worst performance since Black Monday in 1987.

Ordinary stock market investors like you and I were completely shell-shocked with the loss of value incurred over such a short period of time. Pension fund values were also decimated. In some cases, life savings were reduced to a fraction of their previous value.

And it may not be over yet. The future for global financial markets remains uncertain. Anything Governments from the US, UK and around the world have tried to date, has failed to stem the tide.

Who’s to say today’s injection of up to £20 billion into Royal Bank Of Scotland (LSE: RBS) and up to £17 billion into Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY) and HBOS (LSE: HBOS), will stabilise financial markets and stock markets?

A Weekend Of Reflection

The weekend has been a time to reflect and regroup. Below I’ve put together a series of thoughts and ideas about last week, and about the future, an altogether bleaker future than many of us were looking at just a few short weeks ago.

  • If your share portfolio took a turn for the worse last week, you’re not alone. I would guess about 98% of all portfolios headed south last week, the only ones saved being those who were sold short.
  • In this poll conducted on our very popular Paulypilot’s Pub discussion board, of the 380 votes to date, 51% of people seen their portfolio drop more than 41% from its recent peak, and only 5% of people’s portfolio is down less than 10%.
  • Even master investors like Warren Buffett have got their timing wrong. Buffett’s US$5 billion preferred stock investment in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) was made when its shares were $120. As of Friday’s close, Goldman shares traded at $89. There are even doubts surrounding Goldman’s very survival.
  • Just over a week ago, in this article in the Financial Times, the UK’s version of Buffett, Anthony Bolton, said “I would say shares are as cheap as I’ve seen them in my lifetime of managing money…” After that, the FTSE 100 index lost another 21%.
  • The stock market collapse, the threat to the financial system, job security and the forthcoming recession is on most people’s lips. In a straw poll of all the people I spoke to about it on the weekend, it was universally accepted that the good times were most definitely over. Any talk of early retirement is now nothing more than talk.

10 Years Down The Stock Market Drain

  • Some people are estimating they have lost 10 years of savings. It takes a long time to build up your wealth, through hard working, diligent saving, and smart investing. In one relatively short period of time, a decent chunk of that wealth has been erased. Many of us will have to turn the clock back 10 years and start the long saving and wealth building process again.
  • The only person to blame for your portfolio woes is you. If you own banking shares, like me, and you thought house prices were over-valued, like me, you should have sold your bank shares, unlike me. If you owned more speculative shares, you’ve now learnt why they are called speculative shares. The list could go on and on.
  • Having said that, it was impossible to predict the scale and the speed of the stock market sell-off. It was difficult to predict we were heading for what is looking like a deep and prolonged recession. You and your portfolio are living through unprecedented times.

Will Gordon Brown Be The World’s Saviour?

  • In a bizarre way, I wonder whether this whole credit crisis will see the political resurrection of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. As I write, it seems increasingly likely many of the other European economies and the US too will follow the “Brown Model” of part nationalising large parts of their banking systems. Could Gordon Brown go down in history as the man who saved the globe from financial Armageddon? Could he win the next election?
  • If you are sitting there thinking “I haven’t lost any money because I haven’t sold” I’d respectfully suggest you are deluding yourself, especially if you are holding banking stocks. Most banking stocks have permanently and materially fallen in value. Many small company speculative stocks, particularly in the commodities sector, have permanently and materially fallen in value. Write them down, and move on.
  • However, there are some companies whose share prices have been hammered who don’t deserve the mauling they’ve received. In time, they should bounce back, but not as quickly as they’ve fallen. The other thing that’s changed from a week ago is the guarantee of recession, with the very real prospect of it being a long and painful recession.

The Masters Of The Universe Were Wrong Too

  • Which reminds me – predicting the future with any great certainty is a mug’s game. There are plenty of highly paid economists, investment bankers and the like, and as far as I know, none of them predicted the near complete collapse of the world’s banking system.
  • My own view of the future is twofold…1) This is not the death of equities. We’ve taken a large hit, and are battered and bruised, but from here, the stock market will offer decent returns, and 2) We are in for a tough couple of years. The stock market winners will be people who slowly, steadily and rationally rebuild their share portfolios, aiming for between 8 – 12% annualised returns over the long-term.

Friday 10th October 2008 may go into the history books as the day the markets hit the low point of this particular bear market. Let’s hope so.

More: The Credit Crisis Survival Guide

> If you are looking for a home to part your savings, compare the rates of all savings accounts via The Motley Fool’s savings centre.

> Of the companies mentioned in this article, Bruce Jackson has a beneficial interest in HBOS.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

AxHandle 13 Oct 2008, 10:35am

An alternative headline could be Scotish Prime Minister uses UK funds to bail out Scottish Banks. Lloyds being included becasue it is part of the HBOS rescue.

AvensisTom 13 Oct 2008, 10:50am

"The Masters Of The Universe Were Wrong Too"

It depends which economists you chose to listen to!

If you chose to listen to Keynesian school economists they were all wrong.

If you chose to listen to Austrian school economists, they were bang on right.

... and we are still not listening to those that got it right .

cr0bar 13 Oct 2008, 1:13pm

"Most banking stocks have permanently and materially fallen in value"

I can only take this to mean that you think banking profits will never recover and will be significantly lower than those seen in the last 10 years, even in the long term. Is this likely?

Luniversal 13 Oct 2008, 1:35pm

Gold standard or doom. But we won't go back to the wisdom of our forefathers. We have lost the collective historical memory of sound money.

Convulsions in western bourses are merely symptoms of how economic leadership of the world is heading east of Riyadh.

G7 countries now hold half as much foreign currency reserves as the combined forces of China, India, Russia and Brazil. Sovereign wealth funds can pick up cheap, convalescent financial assets in London and NYC and will assume control of our economies... by the same power that Natty Rothschild and his brothers or Barings once wielded over European governments.

Between 1972 and 1987 equities on the LSE showed no real gain in value. Since 1999 we have suffered net, post-inflation losses in ordinary shares, those vaunted "only long-term stores of value". Only in the Nineties, the post-Cold War interlude of delusory consumerist and credit-addicted good feelings, did shares march forward, and that ended in the Tech Bubble.

And so we see the stock market doing its long-term job of discounting the future: the rise of the Asiatic powers and the decline of the West. The events of the past month have only been a rather ostentatious episode in a story that began when Japan was forcibly demilitarised.

As early as the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1970, and the oil stagflation of 1973-75, the writing was on the wall for the West. We consoled ourselves when Japan stalled and communism crumbled that our way was best after all. We carried on partying on tick. Then China arose.

There is a satisfactory poetic justice in this. The trumpeters of free markets such as GW Bush Jr, and the sullen ex-socialist accomodators of globalist and City spivvery such as Gordon Brown, are now forced to nationalise, of all sacred cows, the banks!

Even FDR, Attlee, Cripps and Nye Bevan never went that far. It takes a po-mo politician to panic so thoroughly and abjectly. But if you're Brown or Bush, you seek applause for feebly trying to clean up a mess you helped create.

DamoMackerel 13 Oct 2008, 3:07pm

I'm after losing so much money. Over the last few years I used my Bonuses to buy shares in the company I worked for. They've decreased by about 60%. I had also invested E45,000 on the stock market and that figure has decreased by 40%. I say I've lost about E25,000. And now I've just lost my job. Great!!. Ah well at least I have my health. Your health is your wealth. Chin up.

lowkey48 13 Oct 2008, 3:27pm

I've put my thoughts beyond winning or losing, i'll just continue to pay into my tracker funds once a month and wave goodbye to that money as surely as if i'd put it on the 3.15 at haydock. Time, as the old song goes, is on my side, or will it be my children that finally cash in on my doggedness? or do I lose it all due to a lack of growth due to peak oil? Truth is, like everyone else, i'm down 40% and i'm not smart enough to answer these questions, but I know that people have good-new-ideas every day and good businesses make profits and i'd rather try to be in it than out of it.

teecee90 13 Oct 2008, 3:29pm

Unfortunately some of us don't enjoy good health either......

DamoMackerel 13 Oct 2008, 5:32pm

Sorry to hear about your poor health. What angers me is that I was the sensible guy, prudent in my spending, paying off the credit card in fulletc etc. I was saving for a house but I can forget about that now.

aydunno 13 Oct 2008, 7:21pm

Never fear, if they won't let ethiopia starve they won't let you either. Will they?

Shuggster 13 Oct 2008, 9:05pm

DamoMackerel and teecee90 I sympathise with you both. May I point out an obvious fact that we seem to have forgotten, a good citizen gets nothing but heartache.
You both have saved hard and invested wisely and all you get is return is......... sorry what again?
Take someone from the other side of the spectrum, one who lived off our tax money all their life and was offered a chance to buy their council house (which was bought from our tax money) using a self certified mortgage where they inflated their income and the mortgage broker never checked. Where are they now? Being helped by banks to help them pay their mortgage, the banks that the government is keeping afloat with our tax money.
We are the losers of everything. An honest earning citizen, the once who had no money still have none. The one that used our money to make themselves more money (bankers) are holidaying in exotic locations while the market cools and they can get their jobs back losing our money.

There is no solution to this. This is the society we live in, an unfair one.

DamoMackerel 13 Oct 2008, 11:34pm

I suppose we can learn a few things from this crisis: 1. Having a degree from a renowned university is no guarantee of being smart. Look at all those bankers and brokers and the damage they've done. Quite useless and stupid. 2. Vanilla type saving accounts without all the bells and whistles proved to be a better choice than all the fancy investment schemes and well to do hedge funds. 3. We need to bring back the old virtues like Shame and Guilt. These bankers and Brokers have ruined the reputation of the Stock Markets and brought great institutions crashing down. Yet apparently they seem frivolous to the damage they've done. Shame on you! 4. When will people realise that political correctness is not only ludicrous but quite dangerous? It was PC that set the rot off in the first place. 5. We should have listened to our parents and grand parents when they told us to save and don't borrow what you can't possible afford to pay back.. I was actually doing this but still, like countless others paid the price.

debtwagon 14 Oct 2008, 9:36am

Interesting read, Luniversal, apart from the last somewhat hysterical paragraphs. It's only part nationalisation and the intention, as Mr. Darling said on the radio yesterday morning, is to support the banking system until it recovers, not to run it, so citing Cripps and Bevan is completely beside the point.

But you're probably right about Western decline. I don't see how, in the long term, we can compete with the aggressive industrial and commercial expansion of China and India and probably Korea. Compared to us and the Yanks, they are so determined, driven and selfless. Not sure about Russia, though. They have the fossil energy card but that will become less important as we move towards renewables. Other than that, will they ever move beyond Putin's sabre-rattling mentality?

RAMSINVEST 14 Oct 2008, 1:21pm

When Bank Rate has fallen to 3% the dividend yields that are available on shares now will look very tasty.

Of course it's annoying to have lost capital, but think about all those fat dividend returns on what you have got left.

alba100 14 Oct 2008, 6:01pm

In response to the first comment, from AxHandle:

I am so sick of people like you.
1) Whenever a Scot (Prime Minister, sportsperson or other) does anything good, they're "British" and whenever they do anything you don't like they're "Scottish".
2) I know you didn't mention this, but I'm also so tired of everyone talking about Gordon Brown as the "first Scottish Prime Minister" - Tony Blair was Scottish too, but none of you seem to have noticed.
3) These banks needed help. Would you rather he did nothing and let the economy collapse further? You would have suffered too, regardless of the fact that the banks are Scottish.

In other words, it has nothing to do with the fact that the Prime Minister is Scottish - that move had to be made. If he hadn't stepped in, everyone would have been talking about the "Scottish" Prime Minister who didn't take his chance to save the economy. Well, he did, and I think we should all be thankful for it. Leave your racism out of it next time, please.

AxHandle 18 Oct 2008, 11:37am

In response to the above from alba100.
I was making a political point not a racist one.
Gordon Brown represents a Scottish constiuency.
Tony Blair did not.

alba100 18 Oct 2008, 2:55pm

It still comes across as racist, because nobody would have said anything about an English Prime Minister bailing out English banks. Both ways, it's the British Prime Minister helping British banks. So what's the problem?

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