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Bailout: It's On

Published in Investing on 4 October 2008

Relax. Breathe. It's done.

This article was first published on our US sister site, Fool.com

The House of Representatives passed (and President Bush promptly signed) a $700 billion plan that'll bail out the financial system, ushering in what many saw as the economy's only hope of living to see another day.

The passage came just four days after the House voted down the original bill, causing the market to shake in its boots over the thought of having to make it out of this mess cold turkey. Consider, since the House originally voted the bill down:

  • The Dow saw its largest one-day point loss in history.
  • GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Toyota (NYSE: TM) reported an obliteration of sales after credit markets ground to a halt.
  • The state of California said it might need to borrow $7 billion from the Treasury to cover day-to-day expenses after credit markets froze up.
  • The country saw its largest monthly job loss in five years.

And consider these two comments:

  • "If we don't get [the bailout] solved next week, I may go back to delivering papers."
  • "If we don't do this [bailout], we may not have an economy on Monday."

The first comment came from Warren Buffett, the second from Ben Bernanke two weeks ago.

Buffett became the world's richest man by keeping a cool head under market stress, and Bernanke is someone who chooses his words very, very carefully. In that context, their statements serve to underline the severity of the crisis we're facing.

Opinions are all over the board, but the prevailing thought seems to be that as it became more and more apparent that this is a bailout of the entire financial system -- not just Wall Street executives -- support began to flow in.

So what does this mean for your investments? Well, it means the economy isn't about to completely implode, thank goodness. But that certainly doesn't mean we're out of the woods just yet. Shares of several banks, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) -- companies that should benefit from the bailout -- fell on the news ... go figure. Going forward, investors' attention is bound to shift toward the downside risks of the bailout, such as interest rates, inflation, national debt, and moral-hazard risks. The debate over whether Congress should pass the bill is over ... debate over whether it was the right idea isn't.

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Comments

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macroeconomix 04 Oct 2008 , 6:47pm

A grave mistake and a sad day for all of us that this bailout was passed.

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=1084

Terrapin1 05 Oct 2008 , 10:23am

Why are there no criminal charges against Dubya, Goldmine Sachs, S&P Moodys and Fitch?
They are guilty of not only destroying the US economy but wrecking the world's future.
It's simple enough-we had a redneck idiot being told what to do by gangsters.
WMDs? Wealth Mass Destruction.
Thankyou stupid Republican cheats-for stealing an election and forcing your puppet into power.
The source of the problem can be plainly identified-all their wealth must be returned to the Treasury, for starters- punishments must be harsh and public.
We cannot have a world run by crooks.

elephant888 05 Oct 2008 , 3:23pm

> Shares of several [...] companies that should benefit from the bailout -- fell on the news ... go figure

Ooh, figuring, I was always good at that. I figure: good money after bad. Not that US dollars really count as good money these days, of course...

supasap 05 Oct 2008 , 8:27pm

hurrah hurrah the superstructure once again saves the substructure...... thank God for that I was really worried I would have to try and understand what Marx really meant in his philosophical manuscripts ......though with reference to the inevitable house repossessions and the ability of the rich to benefit from the "correction" I fully understand his phrase "the expropriation of the expropriated"....

Luniversal 06 Oct 2008 , 9:49am

This bailout is taking a handful of aspirin to cure cancer. The market is still down this morning. It senses that the agony of deleverage, reversing the excesses of 30 years and more since Nixon made the dollar into fiat money, will require far more than a second stab at a quick fix.

Sighs of relief will meld into groans of apprehension.

Early in the current spasm of panic, the Fed injected $630bn into the system without any oversight or drip-feeding like the Paulson plan. It vanished like a cup of water in a blast furnace. Why should $700bn sort it?

Read the link "AvensisTom" supplies.

Rep. Ron Paul and the crusaders for a return to sound money, probably based on gold, and the abolition of the secretive, self-serving cartel known as the Federal Reserve have been proved right-- both by the way the crisis blew up and by the irrelevance and corruption of the measures that ignorant, credit-besotted Congressmen have chosen to try to cure it.

Dr Paul said fiat money creation was stoking unnatural booms and could end only one way. If only the Republican Party had adopted as its presidential candidate this honest, fearless, anti-warmongering spokesman for the best of America: for self-reliance, individualism and honest money.

But the system is shot. The globalist businessmen, international financiers and their tame mainstream media and paid-for pols dare not tell the people the truth about how close to bust they are.

The potential liabilities of the US government on welfare programmes such as Social Security and Medicaid make Paulson's remedies for the bankers' ills look like ointment on a graze. In the foreseeable future there will be a $40 trillion deficiency, as the population of the USA explodes and ages and there are more and more poor or pensionable claimants queuing with their hands out.

Basically America is bust; the dollar is propped up by hope and foreign hot money. Dealers sense a malaise they cannot bear to articulate.

The near-decade-long bear market on Wall St. discounts awareness that the torch of world economic leadership is passing to Asia. The 2008 rictus is the first of the death throes.

And THAT won't be fixed for seven hundred billion bucks.

macroeconomix 06 Oct 2008 , 11:01am

"Luniversal" thanks for backing me up :)

The whole credit cruch ordeal is simply a misdirection. It is our very monetary system that is broken.

It is quite simply a pyramid scheme perpetuated by our corporatist and greed motivated rulers, and this is no joke. Money is created as debt, and interest charged on that debt. This means there is never enough money in the system to pay back both the principal of our loans as well as the interest on those loans.
The giant fiat money, Keynesian economic pyramid scheme is collapsing folks!

Educate yourselves!
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/moneyasdebt.html (47 mins)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912 (2 hrs)

DanCorp 06 Oct 2008 , 12:36pm

"But that certainly doesn't mean we're out of the woods just yet. Shares of several banks, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) -- companies that should benefit from the bailout -- fell on the news ... go figure"

...perhaps, because they've now lost opportunity to profit from acquisition of organisations that will now longer fail as they would have, had the bail-out not gone through.

It is a dire day in US econonomic history, when you hear comments like those quoted of Buffett too. I recall watching he and Munger answering questions several years back at their AGM's on these very topics that ultimately panned out as they and many of us saw, yet have been powerless to prevent ...and punished for maintaining morals in the face of financial hedonism. The 70's might have been about 'free love', the 'naughties' clearly have been about 'free money' ...until now.

supasap 06 Oct 2008 , 1:44pm

ok if it just a superstructural thing like money or credit or confidence or banking rates or whatever as opposed to real things like world resources then why do we need to worry in the real world.... sorry for sounding flippant but why don't we just wipe out everyone's debt and then recreate a new currency tied to gold perhaps and then start again? all the people in houses on a mortgage would have the debt wiped off and we could then afford to spend real money that we earn as opposed to credit.... ok some people may lose out but if they are the rich then they too can start again on their entrepreneurial paths...

macroeconomix 07 Oct 2008 , 4:32pm

"supasap" because our leaders would not want it that way.. that would be too good a solution to get out of the current mess - and they would lose control of the people/sheep ;) debt is a form of social control .. and they want to keep it that way. A savings based economy would of course be far better and fairer for all.. unfortunately we are rather stuck with what we have got until there is some sort of a revolution of our monetary system.. and therefore system of governance.

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