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COMMENT
Britain's Best Investor

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
December 8, 2004

Britain's best professional investor celebrates 25 years of market-trouncing returns this month. Anthony Bolton, who runs the Fidelity Special Situations fund, has turned £1,000 into around £80,000 since late 1979 (equating to something like 20% per annum). By contrast, £1,000 invested in the market back then would now be worth under £30,000. To mark Bolton's silver anniversary, a book about how he finds winning shares, Investing with Anthony Bolton, is published today.

Despite the impressive headline performance, Bolton hasn't exactly provided an ultra-smooth ride. For instance, anybody tempted by Bolton's maiden 59% return in 1980 would have quickly suffered some disappointment. Investors buying into the Special Situations fund at the start of 1981 had to wait until 1985 before their money was beating the market.

Then following a good run in the late 1980s, Bolton really seemed to lose his touch. He trailed the market in 1989, 1990 and 1991, as he underestimated the scale of the recession and watched a number of holdings go bust. Anybody encouraged by his prior record and bought during 1989 or 1990 would have had to wait until 2000 before they caught up with an index tracker.

Though often used to promote the potential of actively managed funds, it's worth noting how rare Bolton's long-term talent is among City stock pickers. According to WM Company, there are only 44 UK funds possessing a 20-year record (versus the hundreds that have come and gone in that time), with just eight having actually outrun the market. Suffice to say, the number going for 25 years with a Bolton-like performance can be counted on one hand.

Clearly investors still in the Special Situations fund (especially those making regular investments) have done extremely well . But finding 'the next Anthony Bolton' -- and profiting from him over 25 years -- will be difficult. First, you'll have to miss out on the early years of good performance as you decide whether he's truly talented rather than just plain lucky. Then you've got to ride out the subsequent bouts of underperformance, believing he's still got what it takes. And after that you've got to hope he stays put at the same fund for a decade or two. Instead, deciding on a good index tracker is a much easier task.

More: Investing with Anthony Bolton | Index Trackers Beat Managed Funds -- Again