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MARKET COMMENT
Slowdown? What Slowdown?

By David Kuo (TMFDragon)
March 16, 2001

Carburton Street, London -- According to official numbers released by the Office for National Statistics, British consumers spent £15.2b at the shops in February. This was 5.2% higher than the numbers for the same period last year. These numbers reinforce, to some extent, a study by the Bank of England which found that British consumers were spending more and saving less.

The data also showed that food sales, compared with last year, rose 4.7% for the three months from December to February and similar figures for non-food sales were 5.6% better than a year ago.

The numbers at first sight appear to contradict reports of a slowdown in global economies and confounded economists who had expected to see a fall in the retail sales numbers.

We should take care to avoid reading too much into these numbers.  The figures provide raw data about the total value of sales in the shops and do not give any indication of the profitability of each pound of sale made. The retail sector is going through a shakeout phase that has seen a polarization on the high street with discount retailers competing against the branded goods sellers.

There is an overabundance of supply on the market and this has had the effect of reducing prices in the shops. Many retailers are keen to grow their market share and have embarked on a strategy of reducing margins to attract customers from rival businesses.

The US has taken a number of measures to ensure that the slowdown in its economy will not lead to a full-blown recession. Interest rate reductions by the Federal Open Market Committee and tax cuts by the Bush administration should help to avert a recession. Here in the UK, we should try to be a little bit more prudent by learning to spend a bit less and saving a bit more.

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