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MARKET COMMENT
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The FTSE 100 has surged 29% following its March 12th low. However, nobody really knows whether the first six months of the next bull market have just been witnessed. Still, there are anecdotal signs the bear has gone into hibernation. Firstly, 'defensive issues' are losing popularity. They may hold their own in a falling market, but they traditionally lag in a bull. Among the ten worst performers in the FTSE 350 since the nadir -- of which only four declined in value -- are five utilities and two tobacco firms. Then there's been a significant reduction in bad corporate news. Since March 12th, just six FTSE 350 shares have issued a profit warning and tumbled 20% or more on the day, with the last being in June. The equivalent six-month warning count for 2002? 30. Dividends are also on the increase. Over the past six months, nearly 60% of dividend-paying companies have raised their payouts to shareholders. Sure, there has been a handful of big name dividend casualties since March, but the general payout trend remains upwards. That's bullish. The proven gurus are also buying. Respected fund managers Anthony Bolton and Peter Webb are both upbeat on shares. That's in contrast to Joe Punter, who's missed out on the rally by chasing performance bandwagons elsewhere -- another good (yet sadly predictable) sign. Finally, the market has an increasing appetite for new issues. Flotations have been rarer than hen's teeth in recent years, but bull markets are characterised by an ever-increasing number of IPOs. Even tech shares, for so long investment pariahs, are returning to fund-raising favour. Microchip firm Wolfson Microelectronics is set to float later this year, while Lastminute.com (LSE: LMC), LogicaCMG (LSE: LOG) and Marconi (LSE: MONI) have lately received additional financing. To reiterate, only in hindsight will it become clear if the last six months did indeed herald the next bull run. But going on this evidence, the bear does appear to be beaten. Next: Grab yourself a cheap broker | Index track your way to stock market riches Discussion boards: Communion Of Bulls | Bears