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MARKET COMMENT
Small Cap Toy Joy

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
November 15, 2002

Wooo! Wooo! It's full steam ahead for Hornby (LSE: HRN). The venerable toy firm today issued interim figures that would please even the most Scrooge-like of investors. Just like the stock market, it would appear children too have become tired of high-tech fancies and have returned to their traditional favourites.

Hornby's statement confirmed its recovery remained on track. Turnover jumped 32% to £14m while pre-tax profits soared 108% to £1.7m. Earnings per share also doubled, to 14.7p, while the half-year dividend was tripled to 6p per share. New and revamped products in the eponymous train and Scalextric ranges did the trick. The strategy of attracting toy collectors and opening up numerous concessionary retail outlets also worked wonders. 1999 now seems a long time ago, a year when Hornby's sales stalled, profits crashed and fresh management were asked to get on board.

Time to race out and invest? Well, small toy companies are typically not the greatest of long-term investments. While Hornby has the benefit of two classic brands, it still remains exposed to very fickle customers and numerous imitations. Given the company's haphazard record throughout the 1990s too, Hornby shareholders look to be on a bit of a mystery tour at the moment. Will they, at long last, be rewarded with a long and prosperous journey, or suddenly end up in the sidings yet again?

Hornby shares leapt 17p to 483.5p in early trade, valuing the company at £35m. On a historical twelve-month basis, the shares come with a price to earnings ratio of 12 and dividend yield of 4%. Upbeat comments on near-term trade underpin growth forecasts of 10-15% over the next year or two. Anybody spotting the stunning value of Scalextric last year has so far had a great ride. But with the obvious value now gone, and companies of a more proven nature resting on similar valuations, thoughts must turn now to alighting the shares.

More: Hornby discussion board | The Stunning Value Of Scalextric