MoneyTalk

 

Investing Tips From Jim Rogers

17 December 2012
In this week’s episode:

David Kuo chats with Jim Rogers at his home in Singapore. The wall of sound in the background was provided by an orchestra of uncooperative cicadas, crickets and other noisy Asia insects. Jim reveals the reasons why he sold his home in the US and relocated his family to the East. He also outlines his outlook for investment banks, highlights his views on quantitative easing and reveals his favourite picks in Asia markets for investors. A transcript of this podcast is also available.

 

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David Kuo and Jim Rogers
David Kuo and Jim Rogers

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

Wuffle 17 Dec 2012 , 10:39am

Heard much of it before from Jim, but enjoy the delivery every time.

Wuffle.

LastChip 17 Dec 2012 , 5:16pm

The thing is, in my view, ultimately he will be proven right. It's only the time scale that is open to debate.

Pouring money at a problem and increasing debt can never be an answer. Once the debt becomes unmanageable (which in my view it now is), bankruptcy is inevitable.

It's no secret that I've been saying the mother of all crashes is yet to happen. It's just taking longer than I anticipated due to constant political meddling.

goodlifer 18 Dec 2012 , 12:18am

LastChip
"Ultimately he will be proven right. It's only the time scale that is open to debate."
You make it sound as if his day job is forecasting the weather,

"I've been saying the mother of all crashes is yet to happen."
You're not alone.

For a dividend reinvestor like me it can't happen quick enough.
When oh when?

ANuvver 18 Dec 2012 , 3:17am

Ha ha!

Being right is easy. Doing it at the right time, however...

What chance that in 2013, markets laugh off a UK downgrade and gilt yields continue to fall?

You could argue that such is the sheer scale of the problem, continued political meddling is one of the few certainties we have.

richjfool 18 Dec 2012 , 3:17am

A very interesting podcast. I already live in Asia and some of my UK invested portfolio is invested in Asia (Asian IT's).

The podcast seems to suggest that I should bring more funds here from the UK and invest them here. A career in agriculture or mining maybe a bit too late, as I'm retired already.

I wonder if David Kuo is moving to Singapore and starting up a market in second hand duvets?!

If you come to Thailand David, do let me know.

Regards

TMFDragon 18 Dec 2012 , 7:58am

Hi Wuffle

Jim was an absolute delight to interview. He is intelligent, interesting and insightful. I could have talked to him all morning!

Best

David

atalbot9 18 Dec 2012 , 10:24am

Great interview, incredibly annoying background noise though!

TMFDragon 18 Dec 2012 , 2:06pm

Hi atalbot9

Spare a thought for those of us who have to endure that 24/7 - the flipside of living on a tropical island paradise are noisey tropical insects.

You can hit the off-button - we can't.

Best

David

TMFDragon 18 Dec 2012 , 2:13pm

Hi LastChip

An indebted country has three choices over its debts.

Option 1: It can choose to service and pay down its debts
Option 2: It can default on its debts
Option 3: It can devalue its debts

My money is on lots of Option 3, which can be inflationary.

Best

David



TMFDragon 18 Dec 2012 , 2:28pm

Hi richjfool

The market for duvets in Singapore may be limited but there is definitely a need for the Foolish approach to investing.

Best

David

trmeer 21 Dec 2012 , 2:04pm

I admire Jim Rogers but I think he's wrong on this. There is currently far too much emphasis on government debt, when governments have merely taken on this debt due to reduced tax revenue because of the financial crisis and in order to prevent the private sector from collapsing under its own excess debt. The levels of debt to GDP we currently have in the Western world are more than manageable, as the bond market seems to agree with, since bond yields are historically low. Rogers is correct that of course there are moral issues with the action of bailing out corrupt institutions that have been badly managed but the time to deal with these issues should come later, not in the midst of a depression. Unemployment is a far greater problem than government debt, since if you restore employment there is far more spending and tax revenues increase allowing the debt to be paid off faster. Rogers is correct about the long term demographic problem; we have a shrinking workforce and a growing elderly population and this means we will absolutely have to cut spending in the long term, unless we can massively increase our competitiveness and achieve a trade surplus. The key point is "long term demographic problem", right now the most pressing problem is unemployment and lack of investment. These need to be sorted as a matter of urgency and the longer term problems can then be resolved afterwards. The current "muddle through" does no use to anyone since Libertarians like Rogers use the lack of progress due to an inadequate stimulus to discredit Keynesianism and Keynesians say that what is being done isn't actually Keynesianism. Sorry to sound like such a Krugman but debt of ~70% to GDP is really not a problem unless you make it one by using austerity to reduce GDP in a time of recession.

trmeer 21 Dec 2012 , 4:04pm

Rogers: "The next global slump will be worse because the debt is so much higher." This is simply untrue.

The financial crisis was largely caused by financial institution and private sector debt and the consequent credit squeeze and resulting lack of spending and investment. It continues because businesses and individuals are still deleveraging and thus demand is reduced because everyone is spending less. Thus what has happened is that the debt has transferred from the private sector to the public sector and now governments are in debt. The mistake Rogers makes is to think that this new government debt is a crisis, excessive private debt is a crisis because it slows down spending and investment, reducing GDP and hurting confidence. Government debt on the other hand can be inflated away and paid off in the longer term and is thus far less harmful.

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About the show

MoneyTalk is a podcast from The Motley Fool (UK). Hosted by David Kuo, it’s a lively roundtable discussion where Fool writers and guests from the world of money thrash out the financial issues of the day.

Join us as we take an irreverent look at anything and everything to do with shares – from how to pick your first share to how to manage your own pension to what mini skirts have to do with Britain's economy (quite a lot, according to David).

From quick tips on how to tidy up a wayward portfolio to in depth discussions with industry experts, MoneyTalk tackles a different topic every week.

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About the presenter

David Kuo is The Motley Fool’s media personality. He can be heard on BBC London’s (94.9FM) Breakfast Show where he arouses listeners every weekday morning with his unique brand of financial news. He is also a regular commentator on national news programmes including CNBC, BBC News, and Sky News.

David stumbled into the world of broadcasting at the turn of the Millennium when he was invited to comment on the stock market crash. He says, “I think I stunned Londoners speechless when I said the good thing about the crash is that shares are now more affordable for people who want to invest in the stock market!”

His attitude to investing has never wavered, as he always sees downturns in the market as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.