A storm is brewing… is it time to sell Rio Tinto plc, Anglo American plc and Glencore plc?

Should you sell Rio Tinto plc (LON: RIO), Anglo American plc (LON: AAL) and Glencore plc (LON: GLEN)?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

2015 was a bad year for the commodity industry, and 2016 could be a lot worse. After a buoyant start to the year, which was largely a result of Chinese speculation, the industry has now been lulled into a false sense of security as commodity prices have recovered from their 2015 lows.

There’s likely to be more pain on the horizon for miners this year. Many commodity markets remained oversupplied, and the sudden spike in prices at the beginning of the year has helped many smaller producers stay in business despite the turbulent market conditions – bad news for supply/demand fundamentals.

Stay away

Shares in Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO), Anglo American (LSE: AAL) and Glencore (LSE: GLEN) all followed the commodity markets higher during the first quarter of 2016. But now the rally is starting to run out of steam and it could be time for investors to turn their backs on the sector before the storm returns.

To-date, shares in Anglo have surprised even the most optimistic City forecasts by surging as much as 150% during April. The company’s shares have since paired their gains but are still up around 100% year-to-date. However, these gains have come without any noticeable improvement in fundamentals on Anglo’s part. Moreover, the company’s shares currently trade at a forward PE of 21.3 and after last year’s dividend cut could only support a dividend yield of 0.1%.

Highly leveraged 

Glencore has outperformed the wider market by 43.5% year-to-date and the market seems to be willing to trust the company once again. But Glencore remains highly leveraged and highly exposed to volatile commodity prices.

It won’t take much for Glencore’s stock to erase all of their year-to-date gains if commodity prices suddenly take another step lower.

Once again, Glencore is relatively expensive trading at a forward P/E 39.6 and the company’s shares offer a token dividend yield of 0.2%. City analysts expect Glencore to report earnings per share of 3.9p for 2016 and earnings growth of 45% is pencilled in for 2017. According to current forecasts, Glencore is set to earn 5.7p for 2017.­­

Shares subdued

Rio’s shares have been some of the most subdued in the mining sector so far this year. Year-to-date, Rio shares are up only 0.1%, underperforming the FTSE 100 by 0.2% excluding dividends.

As Rio’s gains haven’t been as erratic as those of Anglo and Glencore, the company’s shares looked to be more in defensive mode within the commodity sector than its highly-geared peers. It certainly looks as if the market is treating Rio as slow-and-study income play rather than a geared bet on rising commodity prices.

Shares in Rio currently trade at a forward PE of 17.3 and support a dividend yield of 4.1%. City analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to fall by 35% this year, before rebounding by 12% to 125.1p for 2017.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Rio Tinto. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Illustration of flames over a black background
Investing Articles

2 red-hot UK growth stocks to consider buying in April

These two growth stocks are performing well, but can they continue to deliver for investors through 2024 and beyond?

Read more »

Charticle

Is JD Sports Fashion one of the FTSE 100’s best value stocks? Here’s what the charts say!

The JD Sports Fashion share price remains a wild ride during the first quarter. Could it be one of the…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Could the JD Sports Fashion share price double in the next five years?

The JD Sports Fashion share price has nearly halved in the past five years. Our writer thinks a proven business…

Read more »

Bus waiting in front of the London Stock Exchange on a sunny day.
Investing Articles

If interest rate cuts are coming, I think these UK growth stocks could soar!

Falling interest could be great news for UK growth stocks, especially those that have been under the cosh recently. Paul…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Are these the best stocks to buy on the FTSE right now?

With the UK stock market on the way to hitting new highs, this Fool is considering which are the best…

Read more »

Petrochemical engineer working at night with digital tablet inside oil and gas refinery plant
Investing Articles

Can the Centrica dividend keep on growing?

Christopher Ruane considers some positive factors that might see continued growth in the Centrica dividend -- as well as some…

Read more »

Smiling family of four enjoying breakfast at sunrise while camping
Investing Articles

How I’d turn my £12,000 of savings into passive income of £1,275 a month

This Fool is considering a strategy that he believes can help him achieve a stable passive income stream with a…

Read more »

Person holding magnifying glass over important document, reading the small print
Investing Articles

2 top FTSE 250 investment trusts trading at attractive discounts!

This pair of discounted FTSE 250 trusts appear to be on sale right now. Here's why I'd scoop up their…

Read more »