Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX)

overprice now

Not a Baker Bro stock, but I love it technically.

Another one of these companies with no sales... Oh dear.

A Phara with 1med aimed at treating a side effect that is already reasonably well treated is cruising into a price war for a small area. I'd wait for this to be recommended for approval, let prices rise a week and buy 6 month puts. Did I mention that funding for this is almost 100% governmental the world around. If I were advise congress I'd ask their main computer and Kerex to bid for a5 year exclusive except allergies and take the lowest bid and limit use to patient in whom calcium has failed after 6 months.

Price Target: $13

Overvalued after HUGE pop.

Sometimes biopharma trading can be very unrewarding. There are weeks when every piece of untouchable garbage seems to fly inexplicably, all my watchlist stocks whipsaw in the most frustrating way possible, and everything I sold the week before shoots for a double. But just when things look the darkest, another hilarious chapter writes itself in a great story like Keryx and I remember why my TV is gathering dust.

After the explosion in stock price on Zerenex phase III data, Keryx looked like it had settled into a narrow trading range ahead of future catalysts. This morning, however, the share price was rocketing upwards on a rumor that Keryx was about to be bought out by GSK. The origin of the rumor? Here you go: http://sierraworldequityreview.blogspot.com/2013/03/following-citi-2013-global-healthcare.html

Some highlights from the site:

1. "Accurate call after accurate call, smart, single supermodel Sierra is SMOKING HOT in her predictions!! "

2. "This blog is for fictional and entertainment purposes only! "

3. "Sierra, Adam and Johnny and all other characters ever mentioned and presented by the publisher in this blog are fictional characters and all posts in the blog should be construed as being for fictional and entertainment purposes only!"

Who the Hell are Adam and Johnny? Feuerstein points out another blogspot post in January here http://biotechnewsstockreview.blogspot.com/2013/01/keryx-biopharmaceuticals-kerx-buyout.html . This is another cheap-looking site with identical layout and fonts to Sierra World Equity Review. Here is where you meet Adam and Johnny.

"Adam and Johnny both love investing in biotech stocks, especially small companies that have promising drug pipelines. Adam is an avid researcher and very meticulous in his stock selections, Adam previously worked for Sierra World Equity Review where he was fundamental in helping select numerous accurate FDA calls. Adam has a law degree from Yale and is also fluent in Mandarin which he studied at the University of Beijing. Johnny is a executive for a large pharmaceutical company based in New Jersey, with years of experience in his position as Managing Director for mergers and acquisitions with with special focus on China, Johnny brings valuable insight and perspective to the blogs daily stock posts."

Wow, Adam and Johnny sounds fascinating. Too bad they are fictional characters, as pointed out in the small print disclaimer that follows.

What do you call somebody who comes up with multiple blogspot sites and posts stock rumors coming from ridiculous fictional characters with bizarre biographical details? An imbecile? An idiot? A mental case? Unfortunately you can't call him any of those things, because it worked! The street was dumb enough to buy into this garbage and pop the stock 12% today (and March 7 calls 400%). That makes the creator of Sierra, Adam, and Johnny a wealthy genius.

Of course, anything is possible and there may be a buyout of Keryx brewing. There's 100 other small cap biopharmas with a phase III product that are also buyout candidates and there's always speculation about them as well. The problem is, buyouts are relatively rare and come where you least expect them - YMI, Biomimetic, Mapp. So in general it's a bad strategy to bet on buyouts. And there's one thing I do know, which is if a buyout of Keryx is in the works, the person behind the blogspot doesn't know a damn thing about it.

High volume breakout 1/23/13

Outclassed in all its categories but a fair buy-out candidates.

Zerenex

Big buyout rumors.

Top line Positive phase 3 drug report from Japan, and 100million license fee, you know this company is not going down any time soon!

news

No future

bravo

Possible positive outcome of clinical trials for perifosine.

Phase 3 on Perifosine

Betting on perifosine for the short term bump

biotech